Week 10 of the 2024 college football season is a bit light on top-25 matchups, but sleepy slates like this Saturday’s often end up delivering the most chaos.
Just think back to October 5, when Alabama and Tennessee both lost “gimmes” against Vanderbilt and Arkansas, respectively.
So, which heavy favorites should be on upset alert today?
Duke +21 (-110) bet365
Duke vs. No. 5 Miami, 12 p.m. ET, ABC
Expectations for Duke football were not high this season after the program lost head coach Mike Elko to Texas A&M this offseason, but Manny Diaz has the Devils — who boast one of the most underrated defenses in the country (No. 20 in ESPN’s SP+) — playing well.
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Last Saturday, Duke forced six SMU turnovers and nearly upset the No. 20 Mustangs in Durham, but Duke kicker Todd Pelino’s would-be game-winning field goal from 30 yards was blocked, and the Blue Devils lost in OT.
Against Miami, Duke will face the best offense its seen all year, as Cam Ward is a legit Heisman candidate for good reason. The Canes have found themselves in a number of close games, though, including one-score contests in back-to-back-to-back contests against Virginia Tech, Cal and Louisville in Weeks 5, 6 and 8.
Those teams are all solid, but they’ve also lost at least three games this year.
Should the U really be favored by 21 over a solid, albeit offensively challenged, Duke team that is 6-2 (2-2 ACC)?
We don’t think so.
Duke +21 (-110): 1 unit
Illinois Moneyline (+130) DraftKings
Minnesota vs. Illinois, 12 p.m. ET (FS1)
A week ago, we couldn’t understand why BYU was getting points vs. UCF, and sure enough, the Cougars won that game going away, 37-24.
This week’s “wait, did I read those odds correctly?” award goes to Minnesota vs. Illinois.
No, Illinois did not fare well in Eugene last Saturday, losing 38-9 to the Ducks in a game that was never close. Still, against non-elite competition this year, Illinois — whose only losses this year came against No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State — has been excellent. The Illini have wins over Kansas, Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan.
Minnesota opened the season with a bad loss to North Carolina at home, and the Gophers have also lost to Iowa and Michigan this year. This team has won three in a row, though, including a massive upset of USC.
Still, Illinois is the better team, and we like Bret Bielema’s squad to get another solid W today.
Illinois moneyline (+130): 1 unit
Vanderbilt +7.5 (-108) DraftKings
Vanderbilt vs. Auburn, 12:45 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
QB Diego Pavia and Co. keep getting no respect from oddsmakers, and at this point, it defies belief. Coach Clark Lea’s team not only took down Alabama in a game that wasn’t the least bit fluky, but also beat Kentucky and played Texas tough last Saturday in a 27-24 loss.
Auburn (3-5, 1-4 SEC) has been one of the worst teams in the SEC, with losses to 4-4 California and 4-4 Oklahoma, and before last week’s win over Kentucky, the Tigers had dropped four straight.
We’re not convinced Vanderbilt will win this one outright (though we might be if this game were taking place in Nashville instead of at Jordan-Hare). Still, Vandy — which has not lost a single game by more than four points this year — feels like a lock to keep this game respectable, if not pull off another upset to go with its wins over Virginia Tech as a 13.5-point dog and Bama as a 22.5-point ‘dog.
Vanderbilt +7.5 (-108): 1 unit
Vanderbilt moneyline (+240 at bet365): 0.25 units
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