Former President Donald Trump may lose North Carolina to Kamala Harris in November as polls indicate the swing state could go either way.
A Washington Post survey of 1,001 likely voters, in North Carolina released Tuesday shows Trump has a 2-point lead over the vice president (50 percent to 48). The gap is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The poll, which was conducted between September 25 and 29, suggests that the criticism aimed at Trump-endorsed North Carolina gubernatorial hopeful Mark Robinson is not damaging the former president’s hopes of victory in the battleground state.
Robinson reportedly described himself as a “Black Nazi” on a pornographic website’s message board more than a decade ago, among other statements. Robinson has denied the claims as “salacious tabloid lies.”
Mitch Kokai, a political analyst at the John Locke Foundation, a conservative think tank, previously suggested that the scandal surrounding Robinson would not hurt Trump in the key swing state. “The former president has won North Carolina’s electoral votes twice, despite all of his own electoral baggage,” Kokai told Newsweek.
Hurricane Helene could also have an impact on the 2024 race in North Carolina. Early voting in the state had begun before the storm hit, and the hurricane has potentially affected the collection of mail-in ballots or caused the destruction of polling places.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on September 25, 2024 in Mint Hill, North Carolina. Polls suggest Trump and Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck in North Carolina.
Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
If Trump wins North Carolina and the swing states of Pennsylvania and Georgia, he will reach the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the election overall, barring any upsets elsewhere.
Trump could also win by beating Harris in the four Sun Belt swing states of North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and flipping either Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania.
Polling averages have pointed toward narrow Trump victory in the toss-up state.
According to the FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Trump is ahead of Harris in North Carolina by 0.2 points (47.7 percent to 47.5) as of Tuesday.
RealClearPolitics’ average has Trump with a slightly larger lead in North Carolina of 0.8 points (48.7 percent to 47.9).
In general, polls have reflected the fact that the state in is for a tight race.
An ECU Center for Survey Research poll of 1,005 likely voters showed Trump with a 2-point lead over Harris in North Carolina (49 percent to 47). The survey was conducted between September 23 and26, with the results having a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A CNN/SSRS survey, conducted between September 20 and 25, showed Trump and Harris tied at 48 percent. The survey consisted of 931 likely voters in North Carolina, with the results having a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
A survey of 1,173 likely voters from AtlasIntel had Harris leading 50 percent to 48. The poll was conducted between September 20 and 25. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
One Fox News poll gave Harris a 2-point advantage over Trump among registered voters (50 percent to 48). Among a smaller sample of likely voters, Trump led Harris by 1 point (50 percent to 49).
The Fox News poll was conducted between September 20 and 24 using a sample of 991 registered voters in the state and 787 likely voters. The margin of error for the registered voters results was plus or minus 3 percentage points, and 3.5 percentage points for the likely voters.
