US Polling Nostradamus Says Trump Had Just One ‘Good Argument’ In Debate

Historian Allan Lichtman, known as the Nostradamus of U.S. elections due to his track record predicting the results, has said former President Donald Trump made one good point during his debate with Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday.

In a YouTube livestream following the debate, the professor said: “I’m not sure a single coherent argument in [Trump’s] favor came out except at the very end [of the debate].”

“He finally made the one argument that his handlers were stressing should be the centerpiece of his debate, but he was so busy defending himself it didn’t come out, and that was, ‘hey, you’ve got all this vision stuff, why didn’t you do it for the last three and a half years?'”

“Good argument—the only good argument he had,” Lichtman said.

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When contacted for comment on the former president’s debate performance early Wednesday, a Trump campaign spokesperson pointed Newsweek to the following statement from Trump senior advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles: “President Trump delivered a masterful debate performance tonight, prosecuting Kamala Harris’ abysmal record of failure that has hurt Americans for the last 4 years.

“We saw President Trump lay out his bold vision of America and how he would continue to build upon the successes of his first term by supercharging the economy, securing the border, and stopping crime from ravaging communities across the country.

“Conversely, Kamala’s vision of America was a dark reminder of the oppressive, big government policies of Joe Biden that she wants to continue. High inflation, a porous border that allows criminals and terrorists to flood across, and being soft on crime—that is what Kamala represents.

“The choice could not be more clear—President Trump was the clear winner tonight, and he will win for America when he returns to the White House.”

Newsweek has contacted Lichtman for comment via email outside of standard working hours.

Tuesday’s debate between the presidential hopefuls saw the two candidates clash on the economy, immigration, foreign policy, abortion, and each other’s political track records.

Lichtman’s prediction model, “The Keys to the White House,” hinges on 13 keys.

These keys evaluate the standing of the incumbent party based on areas such as the economy, foreign policy, and domestic politics, such as social unrest, major scandals, and the presence of a third-party candidate.

If six or more of the 13 keys—all true/false statements—are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or fewer be false, it is expected to win.

Lichtman has forecast that Harris will win November’s election.

Speaking with Newsweek after he formally announced his prediction, Lichtman said the status of the foreign policy keys were the hardest to determine.

“You’re dealing with two wars—two uncertain wars that are very fluid—which makes those two keys extremely difficult to call,” he said.

“Even if they both flipped against the Democrats, there still would not be enough [false] keys to predict their defeat,” Lichtman added.

“And frankly, I think the most reasonable construction of the foreign policy keys, which does reflect the record of the Biden administration, is that they would be split.”

The 13 keys, as set out by the historian in a 2012 article for the Social Education journal, are:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

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