Kamala Harris has maintained her lead in the polls after her first debate with Donald Trump, according to a Republican pollster.
A new survey conducted by Red Eagle Politics as well as SoCal Strategies and On Point Politics shows that Harris is 3 points ahead of Trump, on 48 percent to his 45 percent. It questioned 719 likely voters nationally and had a margin of error of +/-3.7 percent.
The poll, conducted between September 10 and 11, was one of the first since Harris and Trump took part in a debate on Tuesday night in Philadelphia. The former president was fact-checked four times for repeating false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and promoting a conspiracy theory about migrants in Ohio abducting and eating pets.
Another poll, conducted by Leger and the New York Post in the same timeframe, also put Harris 3 points ahead of Trump after the debate, on 50 percent to his 47 percent. It surveyed 1,174 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 2.72 percentage points.
Kamala Harris during the debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. Harris has maintained her lead in the polls, according to a Republican pollster.
SAUL LOEB/AFP
The Red Eagle Politics poll shows that Harris has gained one point since their previous survey, when she was 2 points up, while Leger’s poll puts her one point down since their last survey.
Newsweek has conducted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
The poll boost comes following a dip for Harris after she had overtaken Trump’s lead following the launch of her campaign. A recent survey conducted by the New York Times and Siena College between September 3 and 6 gave Trump a one-point lead over Harris among likely voters.
It was the first major poll to show a drop in support for Harris, which the New York Times speculated might have represented the end of a honeymoon period and a “euphoric August” for the vice president. Other recent national polls, including surveys conducted by the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and YouGov and The Economist showed that the candidates were tied.
Polling averages also show that Harris’ lead over Trump has reduced in the past two weeks, with the vice president’s average lead reducing to 2.6 points from 3.6 points on August 24, according to FiveThirtyEight.
In addition, pollster Nate Silver‘s model shows that Trump has a 61 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Harris’ 38 percent.
However, Harris’ odds could improve following the debate, which 63 percent of viewers said she won, according to a CNN flash poll conducted on Tuesday night, despite both candidates declaring victory.
According to the Red Eagle Politics poll, 53 percent said Harris won, while just 34 percent declared victory for Trump.
The polls mark a shift from June, when voters who tuned in for the debate between Trump and Joe Biden said, 67 percent to 33 percent, that Trump had outperformed his Democratic rival, according to CNN. The debate eventually led to Biden ending his reelection campaign amid concerns over his age and cognitive ability.
According to Silver, winning the post-debate CNN poll “typically does translate into gains in post-debate polls.” He added that Harris’ performance in the debate had “reduced the chances” of Trump becoming president again.
However, it remains unclear how much impact the debate will have on the polls and the election in November.
Following the debate, Harris’ chances of winning the presidential election in November improved with 20 leading bookmakers.
She also remains ahead in the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics polling averages, as well as Nate Silver’s polling average.
FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model shows that Harris is projected to win the election in November with 279 Electoral votes.
