We were so close to sweeping the slate and cashing all three of our MLB home run predictions yesterday, but unfortunately Aaron Judge could not come through for us in the night game to complete the sweep.
Thankfully, that meant we got two of our three picks to hit (thank you to Shohei Ohtani and Bryce Harper), which is a great day when betting the MLB home run market.
As for today, we will be diving right back into home runs, hoping to have another profitable day.
Aaron Judge Home Run (+290) FanDuel
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET
Judge was the one guy on our list who did not go yard on Tuesday, but we are giving him a chance to redeem himself tonight.
Even though he did not hit a home run, he still had a good day at the plate overall, with two HardHits that were both 100-plus mph off the bat. One of thoe was a double that brought in two runs. He ended the game with four RBI as well, so it was a positive day for Judge.
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That continues a red-hot stretch that Judge has been on over the past week, with 11 HardHit line-drive + fly-balls (second-most in MLB in this stretch). He only has two home runs to show for it, which is due to bad luck more than anything with the way he is hitting the baseball.
The pitcher he is going up against is not horrible by any stretch, as Bryce Miller of the Mariners is on the mound tonight. Miller is admittedly worse against lefties (which we will get into later), but this is also a batter-pitcher matchup that has favored the batter in an extreme way.
In the last three years, these two have six plate appearances against each other, and Judge is 3-for-6 against Miller, with two home runs and another double. One of those home runs came earlier this season, when Judge hit the ball 103.5 mph off the bat for a no-doubter home run.
Along with Judge, we are also riding with Juan Soto to hit a home run in this same game, as he also has excellent stats against Miller.
- Aaron Judge Home Run (+290): 1 Unit
- Juan Soto Home Run (+340) FanDuel: 0.75 Units
Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+375) BetMGM
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET
There is going to be a theme with our picks today: guys who we have gone with a lot recently. That continues with this play on Shohei Ohtani.
Ohtani was on our list yesterday, and he came through with a 402-foot missile that was 105.3 mph off the bat and would have been a home run in all 30 stadiums.
That continued his ridiculous recent stretch, as he has hit 10 home runs in the past month (tied for the most in MLB), along with the most HardHit line-drive + fly-balls in the league (40). The next-closest batter has 35.
As for the pitching matchup, Ohtani is going up against the left-handed Ryan Weathers, but we are not scared off of the lefty-on-lefty matchup.
In this same timeframe (the past month), Ohtani has three home runs off of lefties in only 22 at-bats, with an 18% barrel rate, 50% fly-ball rate and 57% hardHit rate. So, even though he is better against RHP, it is not as though he cannot hit lefties, and we are getting a discount at the +375 price as well.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+375): 0.75 Units
Bryce Harper Home Run (+430) FanDuel
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET
As our last play of the day, let’s go with another guy who came through us yesterday in Bryce Harper.
We liked Harper yesterday because he had been hitting missiles. That continued yesterday, and he once again has a great pitching matchup tonight, so we feel good about going right back to him.
The home run he hit yesterday was 104 mph off the bat and traveled 394 feet, and he had another lineout that was 100.4 mph and traveled 352 feet. That now makes it five straight times that the ball has left Harper’s bat at 95-plus mph off the bat, including four that were 100-plus mph.
He is going up against Freddy Peralta of the Brewers, who is a pitcher to target for home run props. In the last two months, he has allowed a home run every 20 at-bats, with a HR/9 of 1.67.
He has admittedly been better against left-handed hitters, but, as a righty pitcher, this is a matchup that should favor Harper. Peralta has only allowed three home runs to lefties in this stretch, but all three have come off his 4-seam fastball, which presents the biggest advantage for Harper.
Peralta throws the 4-seamer almost 55% of the time to lefties, but, unfortunately for him, batters can tee off on his fastball. Of all four pitches in Peralta’s arsenal, batters have the highest ISO rate, slugging and wOBA off his 4-seamer. Overall, 17 of the 25 home runs hit off him this season have come off his 4-seam FB.
Harper, meanwhile, has great stats against the 4-seamer, with a 54% HardHit rate and .268 ISO rate. Next up, Peralta throws the changeup 25% of the time, which Harper also has good stats against.
He is batting .313 against changeups, with a .328 ISO rate, .642 slugging and .445 wOBA. For context, that would be the fifth-best average, second-best ISO rate, second-best slugging and second-best wOBA in the league if extrapolated out to a full season.
Harper goes yard once again today.
Bryce Harper Home Run (+430): 0.75 Units
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