A new Fox News national poll shows that Vice President Kamala Harris is beating former President Donald Trump by 2 percentage points.
The survey shows a 3-point shift among registered voters in their feelings around the candidates in the 2024 presidential election since August.
Last month, Trump had a 1-point advantage, but now Harris is ahead by 2 points. The Democratic candidate was polling at 50 percent of favorability in the Fox survey, while her opponent received 48 percent of the support.
Trump supporters—72 percent—say they like his policies and record. Almost 20 percent say they “simply dislike Harris.”
Vice President Kamala Harris is pictured during her debate with former President Donald Trump in Philadelphia on September 10, 2024. A poll released on Wednesday suggests that the vice president is gaining support from several key demographic groups.
SAUL LOEB/AFP
Harris’ supporters are a bit more mixed, with 42 percent liking her policies and record, 24 percent liking her character, and 33 percent backing her because they dislike Trump.
The new polling comes after multiple events that could have provided additional support to Harris. The Democratic National Convention was held in August. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the presidential race and shared his support for Trump, with Kennedy’s name being removed from some of the ballots throughout the country. Harris has received endorsements from politicians like Vice President Dick Cheney and his daughter, former Representative Liz Cheney, as well as celebrities like Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is pictured during a Trump rally in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024. A federal judge on Wednesday denied Kennedy’s appeal of a decision to deny his request to remove his name from the state’s ballots despite missing a deadline.
Rebecca Noble
Trump also faced an apparent second assassination attempt.
The biggest changes, according to the Fox polling, come from the independent and Hispanic voters.
In August, independent voters favored Trump by 8 points. They now favor Harris by 12 points.
Last month, Hispanic voters favored Trump by 6 points. They are now favoring Harris’ campaign by 12 points.
“It is important to remember that estimates among small subgroups are more volatile and tend to swing more than others, and that applies here,” Fox noted.
In August, Fox also shared that Harris was closing the gap with Trump in the Sun Belt states, which includes Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas as well as battleground states like Georgia, South Carolina, Arizona and Nevada.
Harris also holds onto many of Biden’s voters from the 2020 election, with 93 percent of his voters, according to Fox. Trump also, however, is keeping nearly all of his voters from four years ago, at 94 percent. Among 2020 non-voters, Harris is up by 3 points.
“Harris’ advantage over Trump on a variety of personal traits is clearly helping her,” says Shaw. “It’s a big deal that she’s been able to fight to a draw on protecting free speech despite aggressive Republican efforts to highlight the Biden administration’s censorship of right-leaning views on social media.”
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at Trump National Golf Club Los Angeles in Rancho Palos Verdes, California on September 13, 2024. A new poll delivered a “red flag” to Trump.
Mario Tama/Getty Images
This also marks the first time that Harris has hit 50 percent support in the Fox polls since she stepped up to become the presidential candidate on the Democratic ticket.
Even still, Daron Shaw, a pollster who conducts Fox News surveys, suggests that Trump may still win the Electoral College.
“Our best estimates are that if Trump is within 2 points of Harris nationally then he will likely win in the Electoral College,” Shaw said. “These data showing a Trump edge in the key counties and battleground states suggest that’s probably right.”
