Polling expert Nate Silver has weighed in on whether Vice President Kamala Harris should participate in another debate with Donald Trump following the pair’s first matchup last week in Philadelphia.
“With her move up in the polls, Harris should stop giving Trump a free option for another debate. I’d give a deadline say accept by Monday or offer rescinded,” Silver wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and the director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, disagreed with Silver’s advice, telling Newsweek that if Harris were to turn down a debate with Trump, it could look like she is “running scared.”
“In a rational world, that might make sense. But very few Americans are following the ins and outs of debate negotiations. Trump isn’t going to respond to ultimatums. And if later Trump challenges Harris to a Fox News duel, and Harris declines, it will look like she’s the one running scared,” Gift said.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Following the September 10 debate, during which the former president was fact-checked a number of times after repeating false claims that the 2020 election was rigged and promoting a conspiracy theory about migrants in Ohio abducting and eating pets, Harris saw largely positive news from the polls.
Vice President Kamala at a presidential debate with Donald Trump at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on September 10. Harris has challenged Trump to a rematch.
SAUL LOEB/AFP Via Getty Images
CNN‘s flash poll found that 63 percent of viewers thought Harris won the debate, compared to 37 percent who said the same about Trump. Most other polls—including surveys by Red Eagle Politics, Angus Reid Global and Data for Progress—also showed Harris as winning the debate.
Meanwhile, polling averages have shown Harris making gains since the event.
According to Silver’s polling average, Harris is now 3.1 points ahead nationally, with 49.1 percent to Trump’s 46 percent. On September 11, the day after the debate, Harris was only 1.7 points ahead.
“It’s possible that Harris is benefiting not just from the debate but also from the favorable news coverage that it’s brought her,” Silver wrote in his newsletter.
Harris has also gained in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. She is now 3.3 points ahead nationally, up from her 2.4-point lead on September 11.
Almost every individual poll conducted since the debate has put Harris ahead. For example, the Angus Reid Global poll showed Harris as being 4 points ahead of Trump among 1,707 registered voters, with 49 percent to his 45 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Another poll, conducted by Morning Consult between September 13 and 15, showed Harris with a 6-point lead among 11,022 likely voters, while a Big Village poll conducted between September 11 and 15 put Harris 7 points ahead among 1,568 likely voters. In both polls, Harris’ lead was outside the margin of error.
Despite Harris’ strong position in the polls, Trump has declared himself the winner of the debate.
“Finally everyone is agreeing that I won the Debate with Kamala. It was like a delayed reaction but, as one Political Pundit said, ‘Trump is still the G.O.A.T.,'” the former president wrote in a Truth Social post on Tuesday.
“Polls clearly show that I won the Debate against Comrade Kamala Harris, the Democrats‘ Radical Left Candidate,” Trump wrote in a lengthy Truth Social post on September 12, without providing any evidence.
He also criticized Harris for calling for a rematch less than an hour after the debate ended.
“When a prizefighter loses a fight, the first words out of his mouth are ‘I WANT A REMATCH,'” Trump wrote.
He later ruled out taking part in another debate, saying Harris only wanted a rematch because he had “clearly” won.
“We just don’t think it’s necessary,” the former president told Telemundo Arizona backstage at a rally in the state. “We think we’ve discussed everything, and I don’t think they want it either.”
At a campaign rally in North Carolina shortly after, Harris said they owed voters another debate because “what is at stake could not be more important.”
In an email to voters, Harris’ campaign team added: “Under the bright lights, the American people got to see the choice they will face this fall at the ballot box: between moving forward with Kamala Harris, or going backwards with Trump. That’s what they saw tonight and what they should see at a second debate in October. Vice President Harris is ready for a second debate. Is Donald Trump?”
Despite Harris’ gains in the polls, the presidential race is still close, with most swing states neck and neck between the two candidates. Silver’s forecast shows Harris winning the popular vote and Trump winning the Electoral College.
However, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, Harris has a 64 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, compared to Trump’s 36 percent chance.
The forecast predicts that Harris will win every swing state, gaining her 300 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 238. Silver’s forecast shows Trump winning every swing state except Wisconsin.
