It’s time for our best bets of the NFL‘s Week 3 slate.
Following a 4-1 start in Week 1, we came back down to earth with a 2-3 showing on our Week 2 best bets (though we did throw out two alt-line bonus bets based on our confidence that the Chargers would whip the Panthers, and both of those were spot-on).
After a number of heavy underdogs — including the Saints, Vikings, Raiders, Bucs and Falcons — won outright in Week 2, will Week 3 bring more chaos, or will the betting favorites take care of business?
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Here’s what we like for Week 3 — and why — in Broncos vs. Buccaneers, Giants vs. Browns, Texans vs. Vikings, Lions vs. Cardinals and Commanders vs. Bengals.
All kickoff times below are ET.
Broncos vs. Buccaneers — 1 p.m. (FOX)
The Broncos led Seattle 13-9 on the road at halftime in Week 1, but have otherwise been as bad as anticipated so far this season, especially offensively.
Rookie Bo Nix is throwing short passes near the line of scrimmage almost exclusively, and his inability to stretch the field is crippling the Denver offense. Nix completed 26 of his 42 passing attempts against the Seahawks in Week 1 for just 138 yards, 2 interceptions and no TDs. He was better, but still struggled against Pittsburgh last week in a 13-6 loss, with 246 yards on 20-of-35 passing, with two more picks.
Tampa Bay remains underrated after thumping Washington 37-20 and beating Detroit on the road in Week 2. We’d like the Bucs by double digits, making them a lock to cover the 6.5-point spread for this game.
Best bet: Buccaneers -6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Giants vs. Browns — 1 p.m. (FOX)
A defense as good as the Browns against a quarterback as bad as Daniel Jones makes the under a safe play, regardless of the number.
No betting philosophy is foolproof, but the latest example to support this one was Thursday night’s Pats-Jets matchup. N.Y. buried New England QB Jacoby Brissett, who was sacked five times, and the Patriots 24-3 in a game whose total closed at 38.5.
The Giants scored just 18 points against a weak Washington defense last week, and they were even worse in Week 1 in a 28-6 home loss to Minnesota.
Deshaun Watson’s struggles so far this year, and the fact he’s facing an underrated Giants D, only make a play on this game’s under that much safer.
Best bet: Under 39.5 (-110 at bet365)
Texans vs. Vikings — 1 p.m. (CBS)
Like Tampa Bay, Minnesota continues to be underestimated despite two outstanding performances to start the season.
Sam Darnold has been excellent, and the Vikes’ 23-17 win over San Francisco in Week 2 was even more impressive than it looks at first glance, because: A) it wasn’t as close as the final score indicates it was and B) Darnold’s 268-yard, 2-TD day came without either TE T.J. Hockenson (knee) or WR Jordan Addison (ankle).
While Hockenson will be out several more weeks and Addison is unlikely to be back for Week 3 after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday, we still like the Vikings to cover as home dogs against a Houston team coming off two close wins to start the year.
Taking an underdog on the spread when it’s getting less than a field goal — as opposed to pulling the trigger on the upset with a moneyline bet — is a bit conservative for most bettors’ liking.
In this case, though, it makes sense given Houston’s proven ability to pull out close games, both last year and to start 2024.
Best bet: Vikings +2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Lions vs. Cardinals — 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
No offense was more impressive in Week 2 than Arizona’s. Kyler Murray’s Cards lit up the Rams 41-10 after jumping out to a 24-3 lead at halftime.
Arizona is just 1-1, but its offense been excellent this year. It played well enough for a road win over Buffalo in Week 1 amid heavy wind gusts of up to 30 mph, but squandered a 17-3 second-quarter lead due to the defense’s inability to stop Josh Allen.
On Sunday, we get two potent offenses, plus a struggling Arizona D, a Lions defense with questions in the secondary, and perfect conditions inside State Farm Stadium in Glendale.
A week after the Lions had no trouble but moving the ball but failed to finish drives inside the red zone in a loss to Tampa Bay, expect both these teams to have little difficulty finding the end zone.
Best bet: Over 51.5 (-110 available at FD, DK)
Commanders-Bengals (MNF) — 8:15 p.m.
If Week 2 taught us anything, it was to think twice about home favorites laying 6 points or more.
But we’re going to be hardheaded and go with Cincinnati on the spread in this one anyway, even after Washington beat division rival New York a week ago.
Plenty of teams, including Washington’s opponent on Monday, would love to have the Commanders’ 1-1 record right now, but don’t be fooled by last week’s victory.
Rookie QB Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are among the worst teams in the league, and their fluky Week 2 win — in which Washington made history by winning without scoring a touchdown thanks to a record seven made field goals by kicker Austin Seibert — doesn’t make them a real threat to Cincinnati on Monday.
The Bengals, who should have Tee Higgins in the lineup for this game after he returned to practice on Thursday, did everything but win in Week 2 on the road in Kansas City, and this team has too much talent — and too much desperation after an 0-2 start — to drop to 0-3.
It’s hard to win big in this league, but we expect the Bengals to do just that at home on Monday Night Football.
Best bet: Bengals -7.5 (-105 available at DK, FD, bet365)
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