The NFL is a wild sport week-to-week. Last week featured some pretty big upsets, with the Saints destroying the Cowboys and the Falcons shocking the Eagles on Monday Night.
Both of these NFC South teams were expected to lose by roughly a touchdown, and they instead ended up winning outright. Of course, the biggest upset of the week was the Raiders taking down the Ravens, as Baltimore was favored by over a touchdown but lost outright.
As the saying goes, any given Sunday, anything can happen, so we are going to call our shot on the best NFL upset predictions for Week 3.
Minnesota Vikings ML (+115) Caesars
Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. ET
After beating the Super Bowl runner-up 49ers last week, the Vikings appears as though they are legit.
QB Sam Darnold looks legitimately good, and has now done it against good competition against the 49ers. He threw for 268 yards and two touchdowns in that game, and overall the Vikings hung over 400 yards of offense on the 49ers.
Luckily, there are also no concerns of a Justin Jefferson injury, as he just had a contusion and is said to be fine for this week and moving forward.
The Vikings have impressed both on offense and defense this season, as DVOA has them as the fourth-best team in the NFL through two weeks, with the 13th-best offense and second-ranked defense.
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According to PFF, however, the Vikings have the fourth-best offense, with the third-best passing offense and the seventh-best rushing offense. In their victory over the 49ers, RB Ty Chandler impressed with 82 yards on only 10 carries.
As for the Minnesota defense, the most encouraging sign came from their opponent last week, when 49ers QB Brock Purdy complemented the Vikings defensive schemes. To be specific, he called Brian Flores’ schemes “crazy.”
Being able to fool Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers offense is no small feat, so that was an encouraging sign that this strong start has been no fluke for the Vikings defense.
On the other side of the ball, the Texans are also 2-0, but have not quite looked up to their potential heading into the year. Last week, they did not put on a very impressive performance against the Bears, as they only scored 19 points and were bailed out by three long field goals from their kicker.
The concern for Houston is that its offense is performing similarly to the way it did last year, when it was lights-out against bad competition but bad against good defenses.
Vikings Moneyline (+115): 1 Unit
Los Angeles Chargers ML (+105) Caesars
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. ET
This is another situation where both clubs are 2-0, but we are fading the home team, the Steelers, in this one.
The Steelers defense is legit, which is the biggest reason why they are 2-0 in the first place, but as good they have looked, the QBs they have beaten are the clearly rusty shell of Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins and Denver rookie Bo Nix, who does not look ready to play QB in the NFL yet.
Despite the fact that the Steelers have played this easy schedule, both of their wins were one-score games, as they were unable to put either of their first two games out of reach.
The reason for that, of course, is Pittsburgh’s struggling offense, which has managed to only score one single touchdown in two games. So, as impressive as the Steelers defense has been, its competition has been as easy as it gets, and they have still barely managed to win because their offense has been so brutal.
That is the biggest difference between these teams, as the Chargers have also had an easy schedule, but they have won both of their games by double-digits. L.A. opened the season with a 22-10 win over the Raiders, followed by a 26-3 blowout victory over Carolina.
Some advanced stats actually rate the Chargers defense ahead of the Steelers as well. Both PFF and DVOA have the Chargers as the best defense in the NFL through two games, while the Steelers are rated fourth by PFF and sixth by DVOA.
Yes, Panthers QB Bryce Young will make any defense look good, but you could make the same argument for both Cousins and Nix.
With Justin Herbert confirmed healthy after an ankle injury bothered him this past Sunday, the Chargers offense garners more trust. DVOA has the Chargers’ O ranked 17th, with the Steelers at 22nd.
That is not a very hot take, as, once again, the Steelers have scored one offensive touchdown through two games. Also, while we noted that the Chargers have also had an easy schedule, it is also worth noting that the Chargers beat the Raiders by 12 in Week 1, and that same Raiders team just beat the Ravens last week.
Any given Sunday, but we like the Chargers to win as the slight underdog here.
Chargers Moneyline (+105): 1 Unit
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