Nebraska Change That Could Hand Donald Trump Win Is ’50/50’—Lindsey Graham

Republican South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham has described the chances of Nebraska changing how it hands out its Electoral College votes before November’s election as “50/50.”

Graham is among several Donald Trump supporters pushing for Nebraska to switch to a winner-takes-all system and recently traveled to the state to meet with GOP lawmakers to discuss bringing forward the change.

Currently, Nebraska divides up its five Electoral College votes by giving one to the winner of each of the state’s three congressional districts, with two votes going to the presidential candidate who wins the popular vote statewide.

The change to the system—giving the winner of the statewide popular vote all its Electoral College votes—could have a major impact on the neck-and-neck race between Kamala Harris and the former president. The vice president is currently expected to get one Electoral College vote by winning Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, as President Joe Biden did in 2020.

In this scenario, Harris could reach 270 Electoral College votes by just winning the three so-called “blue wall” battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, barring any shock results elsewhere in November.

If Trump were to win all of Nebraska’s five Electoral College votes in a winner-takes-all system, as well as the swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, the election would end in a 269-269 tie. In that scenario, the president would be chosen by the GOP-controlled House of Representatives, which favors Trump.

Speaking to NBC‘s Meet the Press, Graham discussed the likelihood of Nebraska voting to change to a winner-takes-all system, noting the importance of such a change in the 2024 race.

“It is a very close election. 63 days ago, [Senate Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer led a coup to overthrow Joe Biden, and he’s telling me, or any other Republican, what we should be doing,” Graham said.

“If they change the law in Nebraska, it won’t be on the phone in the middle of the night. It will be through a democratic process. The entire federal delegation of Nebraska, House members and two senators, want this change.

“To my friends in Nebraska, that one electoral vote could be the difference between Harris being president or not, and she’s a disaster for Nebraska and the world,” Graham said.

Host Kristen Welker pushed back on claims the Democrats ran a “coup” against Biden, who ended his reelection campaign in July in the wake of his poor performance at the CNN presidential debate, as the party has a “right to change” who’s at the top of the ticket.

In response, Graham said, “So does Nebraska.”

When asked what he believes are the chances of such a change taking place, Graham replied, “50/50, down to two people.”

Nebraska State Senator Mike McDonnell of Omaha, who switched from Democrat to Republican in April, recently said he is against switching to a winner-takes-all system.

Graham’s office has been contacted for comment via email.

Nebraska, a GOP stronghold, changed its Electoral College system for the 1992 presidential election. Maine, a historically blue state, is the only other state not to implement a winner-takes-all system in presidential elections.

The five Republicans who represent Nebraska in Congress support a move to a winner-takes-all system.

Nebrask’s Republican Governor Jim Pillen said he would call a special session to vote on a change if he has the required support from 33 Republican state senators to break the filibuster threshold.

In a statement, the Nebraska Democratic Party said that voters “don’t need out-of-state interests to come in and tell us to change the way we’ve been doing things for decades—especially when ballots have already been sent out.”

“We are proud of the state senators who have been consistent and steadfast in standing up for Nebraskans having a voice in our electoral process and will continue to do so,” the statement added.