Monday Night Football tonight features a rare doubleheader, with two games on the slate.
At 7:30 p.m. ET, the Jaguars and Bills face off in Buffalo, and then, at 8:15 p.m. ET, the Commanders and Bengals kick off in Cincinnati. It would have been nice for the NFL to stagger these a little bit more, but we will not complain about getting two NFL games tonight.
Yesterday featured some massive upsets across the league, so, as heavy favorites, the Bills and Bengals better be on alert. As for this article, however, we will be diving into our favorite NFL player props for the two games tonight.
J. Chase o78.5 Rec. Yards (-115) HardRock
The guess here is that this is going to be a popular play tonight, but this screams “smash spot” and get-right game for Ja’Marr Chase against the Commanders.
The Commanders are going to be a team that we are going to target all year, because their defense is absolutely atrocious. In Week 1 against the Bucs, they allowed 37 points and four touchdown passes by Baker Mayfield. Chris Godwin went for 83 yards on eight receptions and one touchdown, and Mike Evans scored twice on five receptions for 61 yards.
Then, in Week 2, they allowed Malik Nabers to go off for 10 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown, and keep in mind that the Giants essentially have nobody else throw to. Daniel Jones only threw for 178 yards, and 127 of them went to Nabers. The Commanders knew that the Giants were going to Nabers and they still couldn’t stop it.
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This was a theme last year with the Commanders, and it does not look to have gotten better this year. As of right now, they have the 32nd-ranked defense in the NFL (which is last), with the 32nd-ranked pass defense (also last).
There is no doubting that it has been a very slow start for Chase through two games, but that can be somewhat explained away when looking at the schedule.
The Bengals also tend to start slow, as this is the third straight year that they have started 0-2, and with QB Joe Burrow coming back from a broken wrist, some rust was expected in the first week of the season.
Then, in Week 2, they faced off against the Chiefs, who for the past year have been among the best defenses in the NFL when covering the opposing teams’ No. 1 WRs.
In 2023, the Chiefs had the fourth-best DVOA against No. 1 WRs, and, even without L’Jarius Sneed, the Chiefs have continued to be good against top receivers this year.
Chase is essentially going up against the polar opposite defense tonight, as the Commanders are the 27th-ranked defense against No. 1 WRs this year after finishing dead-last in 2023.
Ja’Marr Chase over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-115): 1 Unit
James Cook 20-Plus Receiving Yards (+115) Fliff
Our second play of the evening features another receiving prop, this time backing Bills running back James Cook to get us to 20 or more yards.
This was a play that we were on last week and got burned, but that was a tough play from a game script perspective. Cook played great in the game, and he had a long receiving touchdown, but Buffalo just did not need to pass the ball at all in the second half, and Cook barely saw the field after halftime.
Admittedly, the one target he got in Week 2 does not look great from a future production standpoint, but looking into that game makes that lack of receiving production easy to explain away. Bills-Dolphins turned into a blowout early in the second half, making it so that the Bills did not really need to pass or use Cook after the first half.
His only target went for a 17-yard touchdown reception, and in that game, Josh Allen only threw 18 passes, and just six times in the second half. The Bills also had incredible success running the ball, as Cook ran for 78 yards on only 11 carries.
The 20-plus receiving yards is a number that Cook went over in Week 1 with 32 yards, as that was a game where the Bills needed to pass the ball more.
As bad as the Jaguars have been overall this year, their defense has been solid. Not elite, but solid. So far, they have allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards (206) on the seventh-lowest yards per carry (3.81).
With that said, they’ve allowed the ninth-most receptions to running backs and the fifth-most receiving yards to RBs. Cook’s target numbers so far this season won’t wow you, but that was because of the wonky Week 2 game in Miami.
Keep in mind that the target leader for the Bills on the entire season only has eight targets, and nobody has a target share even at 20%. So, the Bills haven’t needed to pass a ton but that is not something that is going to continue week-over-week, and the guess is that Cook, in a normal game, is going to get plenty of targets like he got in Week 1.
As a reminder, in that contest, he was second on the team with three targets, and only one Buffalo player had more than three targets in that entire game.
James Cook 20+ Receiving Yards (+115): 1 Unit
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