When Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee after Joe Biden dropped out of the race this summer, her record on the southwest border was one of the first targets for Republicans.
But it turns out her boss may have handed her an election-year gift — just one that took a few weeks to reveal itself.
Less than a month before before the debate that ended his 50-year political career, President Biden signed an executive order placing restrictions on asylum, which precipitated a sharp and steady fall in illegal border crossings. That move, combined with diplomatic efforts in Mexico and Central America that appear to be paying off, has taken some of the wind out of the GOP’s sails when it comes to the immigration issue, according to recent polling.
“That, I think in many ways, has helped to alleviate concerns around a crisis narrative,” Colleen Putzel-Kavanaugh, associate policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, told Newsweek.
From an aerial view the U.S.-Mexico border fence stops at a hillside on September 22, 2024 near Jacumba Hot Springs, California. Immigrant border crossings remain low months after the Biden Administration’s executive order banning most asylum claims at the southern border. The issues of asylum and illegal immigration remain motivating topics for voters ahead of the upcoming U.S. election. Inset: President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.
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A drop in border crossings in 2024
“The combination of a lack of, every day, seeing the lines of migrants waiting to be processed by border patrol, and also not hearing that places like New York or Chicago or Denver are under immense stress has shifted it, somewhat, for voters,” Putzel-Kavanaugh continued.
Those scenes played out across the national media landscape for much of 2022 and 2023, when New York City, Boston, Los Angeles and other big cities struggled to find space and resources for a crush of new arrivals.
There were 58,038 encounters at the southwest border in August 2024, figures from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) showed, a sharp drop from the record of 250,000 reached in December 2023.
Earlier this year, NBC polling showed Donald Trump with a staggering 35-point lead over Biden on the issue of immigration. That lead has fallen to 21 points, according to the most recent NBC poll, while Harris leads Trump by 28 points on protecting immigrants’ rights.
Polling by Ipsos showed that as border crossings fell, the number of voters selecting immigration as their main issue this November also steadily dropped – from about 20 percent in February to closer to 10 percent in August.
Harris shows tougher stance on the border
Jennie Murray, CEO of The Immigration Forum, told Newsweek that Harris helped accelerate that trend by projecting strength on the issue at the Democratic National Convention, followed up by her debate with the former president.
In both those instances, the vice president delivered more hawkish talking points on immigration, noting the need for a secure border and placing the blame for a failed bipartisan border bill squarely with Trump.
“I think it took some of the emphasis out of conversation,” Murray said.
From an aerial view Colombian asylum seekers walk along a desert road after crossing the U.S.-Mexico on September 22, 2024 near Jacumba Hot Springs, California. Immigrant border crossings remain low months after the Biden Administration’s executive order banning most asylum claims at the southern border.
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Putzel-Kavanaugh noted that it was something new for voters to see a Democrat take a tougher stance on the border, as reflected in the speeches at the DNC.
“They have leaned into some of these tough enforcement measures, while also opening up different and new kinds of pathways, trying to expand diplomatic relations throughout the region,” she said.
“Really making a focus on the hemispheric efforts. The border doesn’t just start and end at the border, but so much of migration happens before and after someone comes into the country.”
Murray believes voters understand this nuance more than the polling shows.
Last week, a Scripps/Ipsos poll suggested a majority of Americans supported Trump’s promise of carrying out mass deportations. At the same time, a similar margin wanted to see more legal pathways to citizenship, which Democrats have called for.
Research by The Immigration Forum has found a vast majority of voters from both parties want to see the two sides come together and find solutions, rather than spread and amplify fears about migrants, such as with the claims made by Senator JD Vance and Trump about Springfield, Ohio and its Haitian diaspora in recent weeks.
“I think that [Harris] could really tap into this because, honestly, there are so many people who would like to see something sensible,” Murray said.
People participate in a Naturalization Ceremony at Liberty State Park on September 17, 2024 in Jersey City, New Jersey. Voters have shown increasing support for more legal pathways to citizenship.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
“The word that I keep getting from so many folks, when they hear this type of rhetoric and they hear these very harsh solutions that are out there, is that they feel quite squeamish,” she continued.
“And this is mostly the center-right folks that I work with, that this is not the kind of leadership that they want to see on the issue.”
Putzel-Kavanaugh said the challenges come with the complexities of the current immigration system, which could be lessened by passing a bipartisan border bill, as Harris has promised.
“We’ve seen many Republicans walk away from it, many have deemed it dead,” she said of that bill. “So the support for it, or the elements of the bill, are one thing, but how to usher it through what will likely continue to be a divided Congress is a whole other point of contention.”
