It has been a wild start to the NFL season, with the perfect example of that being the fact that the biggest underdog entering each week has won outright.
In Week 1, the Patriots upset the Bengals in Cincinnati as touchdown-plus underdogs. In Week 2, it was the Raiders who took down the Ravens as 9.5-point ‘dogs, and then last night, on Monday Night Football, the Commanders shocked the heavily favored Bengals.
In addition, underdogs of 5.5 points or more are now 14-2 ATS, with 10 wins outright. Such underdogs were 5-1 in Week 3. So, if your predictions have not been accurate to start the season, at least the oddsmakers are just as confused as we are.
With all that being said, the more data we have on these teams, the more we can make informed betting decisions moving forward, so here are our three favorite early bets to make for the Week 4 NFL betting slate.
Rams Moneyline (+140) Caesars
Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET
The Rams admittedly got a little lucky to beat the 49ers last week. They had some breaks go their way with a missed kick and a drop by the 49ers WR, but they still were able to beat the 49ers in spite of all their injuries.
L.A. made it work on offense with the hodge-podge of receivers, while its defense was able to do enough, and now it has a polar-opposite opponent in a Bears team that is a mess on offense.
The Bears defense is legit, so this could be an under game, but their offense is a disaster. Their offensive line is brutal (it is currently DVOA’s worst OL in the NFL, with the third-highest pressure rate allowed), and Caleb Williams does not quite have the footwork and mechanics to make things work at an NFL level yet.
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Through three weeks, the Bears have the worst offense in football, according to DVOA, with the third-worst passing game and the second-worst rushing game. According to PFF, they have the third-worst offense, with the fifth-worst passing offense and fourth-worst rushing offense.
The Rams defense is not a world-beater or anything like that, but neither is the Colts defense, and Indy managed to shut down the Chicago offense. That game was only close because Anthony Richardson was trying his hardest to give it back to the Bears, with multiple brutal turnovers.
In Week 1, the Bears scored 24 points, but did not score a single offensive touchdown, and they finished that game with fewer than 150 total yards. They followed that up with 13 points and only 205 total yards in Week 2, and 16 points in Week 3.
They did manage to put up yards in Week 3, but could not score, and that figures to be an issue in Week 4 as well. The Rams have had the third-hardest defensive schedule through three games, so playing the Bears is going to be a welcome sight.
On the other side of the ball, no team has suffered the types of injuries that the Rams have between their OL and then both WRs, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Somehow, though, they have have managed to have an average offense, and Kyren Williams has been awesome. The Rams win this game.
Rams Moneyline (+140): 0.50 Units
Buccaneers +2.5 (-110) FanDuel
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET
These teams are coming off opposite weeks, as the Eagles bounced back from a Monday Night Football debacle in Week 2 to beat the Saints last Sunday, while the Bucs are reeling after losing handily to the Broncos last week.
With that said, the Bucs are the play here, mostly because of all of the injuries that the Eagles have suffered the past two weeks. The Eagles also have a bye in Week 5, so the guess here is that they are going to play it safe with some of their players who are currently on the mend.
Superstar WR A.J. Brown has now missed two straight games with a hamstring that he pulled during practice, while in their Week 3 victory over the Saints, WR DeVonta Smith and OT Lane Johnson both suffered concussions, while starting right guard Mekhi Becton suffered a finger injury.
For those counting at home, that would be the Eagles’ top two receivers, along with the starting right side of their OL that is currently injured. They also lost depth WR and punt returner Britain Covey, who was placed on IR with a shoulder injury.
On the defensive side of the ball, starting CB Darius Slay left the Saints game early with a knee injury.
As of right now, only Covey is confirmed to be out for Week 4, but, again, the guess is that the Eagles play it safe with the majority of these guys ahead of their bye.
The Bucs, meanwhile, looked like one of the best teams in the NFL in Weeks 1 and 2 before laying an egg in Week 3. A letdown by the Bucs last week was not a complete surprise, as they were coming off an emotional victory over the Lions (who knocked out the Bucs in the playoffs last year) in Week 2, and then had to look ahead to this matchup against the Eagles (who the Bucs knocked out of the playoffs last year).
So, the Bucs should come into this game with much more energy than they showed last week, while the Eagles are likely to be missing three of their most important offensive players.
The Bucs are the play here.
Buccaneers +2.5 (-110): 1 Unit
Seahawks +4.5 (-115) FanDuel
Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions, Monday Sept. 30, 8:15 p.m, ET
Backing the Seahawks is a great play for this matchup, which is one of two taking place on Monday night.
The Lions are 2-1, but they have not been very impressive through these three games. Last week, they played a bad defense in the Arizona Cardinals, and, after scoring 20 points in the first half, they went completely scoreless in the second half.
They have not been horrible, as they have the 12-ranked offense according to DVOA, but keep in mind that last year their offense was the fifth-best in the league. So far this year, they just have not been able to get the same success going.
Part of that has been Jared Goff’s struggles. Of the 32 QBs that have thrown enough passes to qualify, Goff ranks 22nd this season, according to DVOA, and 31st of 35 QBs, according to PFF.
Lions TE Sam LaPorta is also injured with an ankle sprain. He’ll probably gut through it, but we have no idea how healthy he will be.
The Sehawks, meanwhile, have been great on both sides of the ball, and Geno Smith has been awesome as well. He is the 10th-best QB in the league this season, according to DVOA, and the fifth-best according to PFF.
Overall, the Seahawks have the second-best DVOA in the NFL, with the fifth-best offense and the second-best defense. Their defense has admittedly had an easy go of it (quite literally the easiest defensive schedule in the NFL, according to DVOA), but the good news is that they have been dominating those easy opponents.
PFF also ranks Seattle as the best defense in the NFL, so it is not just DVOA, either.
Offensively, the Seahawks’ biggest issue heading into the year was the O-line. They have not quite solved that, but tackle Charles Cross is currently the highest-graded OT in the NFL. We’re not saying their OL has been good, because it hasn’t, but it has at least not been offense-ruining.
Seattle Seahawks +4.5 (-115): 1 Unit
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