The Middle East War in Battleground States that Threatens Kamala Harris

As Israeli airstrikes bombard Hamas and Hezbollah militants nearly 6,000 miles away from his home in Philadelphia, Saif Iqbal wants Vice President Kamala Harris to distance the United States from Israel—an attitude that could prove crucial in November.

Iqbal, 29, helped mobilize opposition to Donald Trump in 2020 as part of the Million Muslim Votes campaign, but the activist and lifelong Democrat isn’t ready to commit to Harris.

Muslim Americans nationwide backed President Joe Biden by a huge margin in 2020, with 86 percent voting for the president and just 6 percent supporting Trump, a survey found.

However, the bloc of more than 2.5 million registered voters has increasing concerns over Harris’ handling of the Israel-Hamas war—potentially shifting crucial support to Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who leads the vice president in three battleground states among Muslims.

“Muslim voters are frustrated because they feel that the administration is unwilling to address human rights abuses that the U.S. is financially supporting,” Iqbal told Newsweek.

Washington’s unwavering diplomatic, financial and military support of Israel amid ongoing military campaigns in Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon leaves many Muslim voters in an “impossible position,” Iqbal said.

The escalating conflict could also be a factor for roughly 6 million Jewish Americans, though overall the Middle East is seen as less important than domestic issues and there is little sign of them being swayed by Trump’s statements that only he can defend Israel.

Battleground states where the two voting blocs could prove pivotal include North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Biden won two of the three states four years ago, but the nearly 80,000 registered Muslim voters in the Peach State far exceeds the 11,700-vote margin of his victory.

“I haven’t made a final decision yet,” Iqbal concluded. “There’s still time for Harris to change my mind, but as of now, I’m leaning towards Jill Stein.”

Aliya Khabir, a Black Muslim voter in Philadelphia, said she is supporting Harris, but strongly criticized U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, accusing the Biden administration of ignoring victims in Gaza, despite rushing to save Ukrainians following Russia’s invasion in 2022.

“Neither of these parties are fair and just when it comes to foreign policy,” Khabir, 45, said of Democrats and Republicans. She told Newsweek that Harris should “Acknowledge the imbalance.”

It is nearly a year since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, killing some 1,200 Israelis and kidnapping a further 250 in an assault that prompted an Israel offensive that health officials in Gaza say has killed nearly 42,000 Palestinians.

That war, and Israel’s expanding offensive against Hezbollah guerrillas firing rockets from Lebanon, have now also become part of the equation in the close-fought U.S. election.

Harris and Stein are virtually tied at 29 percent among Muslim voters nationally, recent polling revealed. Trump finished a distant third at 11 percent, while another 16.5 percent said they remain undecided.

Stein’s pledge to end the “genocide in Gaza” has further resonated with Muslims in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, where she leads both Harris and Trump. The vice president is leading Stein in Georgia and Pennsylvania, but trails Trump slightly in Nevada, according to a survey in late August.

Harris’ fractured support among Muslims contrasts to the strong commitment she has receiving nationally from Jewish voters. Seventy-two percent said they will vote for the vice president, compared to 25 percent for Trump, a recent survey by the Jewish Democratic Council of America (JDCA) found. That is little changed from Biden’s 70 percent share of the Jewish vote in 2020, with another 27 percent choosing Trump.

Those shifts are changing the calculations in the battleground states whose Electoral College votes will determine who becomes president.

In North Carolina, where Trump won by 74,000 votes in 2020, there are at least 54,000 registered Muslim voters, compared to an estimated 50,000 Jewish voters. Polls show the former president leading Harris by less than a percentage point in the Tarheel State as of Wednesday.

Biden won Pennsylvania four years ago by a slightly bigger margin—81,000 votes, or roughly half of the number of registered Muslim voters statewide. There is also a significant population of roughly 300,000 Jewish adults in the Keystone State.

Nationwide, nearly half of Jewish voters polled said they will be motivated by the future of democracy rather than Israel, which tied for ninth on a list of 11 issues identified in the JDCA’s survey. Abortion and the economy ranked second and third, respectively.

Esther Graff-Radford, of Atlanta, voted for Biden in 2020 and said she is definitely voting for Harris, primarily due to her experience as a former federal prosecutor. Graff-Radford, a biracial convert to Judaism, praised Harris’ perspective on the Israel-Hamas war.

“I believe she is sincere in her desire to see a world that’s safe for the Jewish people she loves. Her family looks like my family,” she said.

The Harris campaign’s national security spokeswoman, Morgan Finkelstein, previously referred Newsweek to the vice president’s comments during the debate when asked for a response to concerns shared by Muslim voters.

Israel had a right to defend itself after the October 7 attacks, but “far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed,” Harris said.

“What we know is that this war must end,” she added, vowing to work “around the clock” on a ceasefire deal and a two-state solution.

Haris Turin, vice president of policy and programming for the Muslim Affairs Council, said the “horrific images from Gaza and now Lebanon” are propelling Stein’s ascension at the expense of Harris because the former has a “plan to make the atrocities stop.”

“With the extremely thin electoral margins, American Muslims will be pivotal in all of the swing states and will absolutely be a deciding factor in the outcome of these elections,” he said.

The Council on American-Islamic Relations reiterated its call Monday for the Biden administration to impose an arms embargo on Israel amid attacks in Lebanon targeting Hezbollah militants. Some 564 people were killed and more than 1,600 others were wounded during two days of airstrikes, Lebanese authorities said Tuesday.

Sam Markstein, national political director for the Republican Jewish Coalition, predicts Jewish voters will similarly prove to be a “decisive group” in the presidential election. He accused Democrats of scrambling to mitigate losses within both Muslim and Jewish voting blocs.

“It’s obvious Democrats have a real problem when it comes to just getting up and standing up for Israel,” Markstein told Newsweek. “They can’t do it.”

Markstein said many Jewish voters are also worried about the rise of antisemitism domestically. Data released Monday by the FBI revealed reported hate crimes nationwide reached a record high of 11,862 incidents last year. Antisemitic attacks rose some 63 percent from 2022, while hate crimes against Muslims increased 49 percent, data shows.

“Even though Jews only make up 2 percent of the U.S. population, anti-Jewish hate crimes accounted for 67 percent of all religiously motivated hate crimes recorded by the FBI,” Markstein said. “All these issues are deeply personal, they’re very visceral for Jewish voters and we believe they’ll be top of mind as folks start to vote early.”

Other advocates, meanwhile, view Trump’s characterization that Jews would be a big part of the equation if he loses in November as deeply troubling.

Jeremy Kazzaz, executive director of the Beacon Coalition, a Pittsburgh-based Jewish advocacy group, accused Trump of setting up Jewish voters to be scapegoats in the election regardless of the outcome.

“We see that as incredibly dangerous,” Kazzaz told Newsweek. “A lot of voters going into the November election are really thinking about the safety and security of Jews in America.”

Kazzaz praised Harris for fighting antisemitism as vice president, noting that her husband, second gentleman Douglas Emhoff, who is Jewish, attended the groundbreaking ceremony in June for the new Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh, where 11 worshippers were killed in 2018—the deadliest antisemitic attack in U.S. history.

Harris has also denounced pro-Hamas protesters in Washington D.C. as unpatriotic, antisemitic and dangerous, as well as giving a strong show of support for Jewish voters at the Democratic National Convention in late August, Kazzaz said.

“And that’s the sort of behavior that should be an important indicator to Jewish voters,” he said.

Amy Spitalnick, CEO of the nonpartisan Jewish Council for Public Affairs, said poll data showed that most Jewish Americans understand the complexity of the Israel-Hamas war—recognizing Israel’s right to defend itself while having deep empathy for Palestinians and concerns about Israel’s military response.

She criticized Trump for saying that Jews who don’t support him are somehow disloyal.

“And the danger of dividing Jews into these good and bad camps or to making it permission to scapegoat Jews, we know exactly where that leads,” Spitalnick said.

“Even if there are specific disagreements on Israel policy or Gaza, it’s also important to be clear that the fact that there’s only one presidential candidate that has leaned into antisemitism as a core talking point.”

Spitalnick said the Jewish electorate is a diverse voting bloc motivated to act on myriad concerns facing all Americans, not just the Israel-Hamas war.

“The Jewish community is not a monolith,” she said. “The Jewish community, like any other community, votes on a variety of issues, including democracy, the economy, healthcare, education and a variety of other topics, which does include Israel, but Israel is oftentimes not the top issue that most Jews are voting on.”