Voters viewed Minnesota Governor Tim Walz more favorably than Ohio Senator JD Vance ahead of the vice presidential debate, which will allow each candidate to win over undecided and independent voters just over a month until Election Day.
Walz and Vance, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump‘s running mates, respectively, are set to face off in New York City in a critical debate that could shape the outcome of the election, as only a razor-thin margin separates Harris and Trump in battleground states.
The debate will air on CBS News at 9 p.m. on October 1. CBS Evening News anchor and managing editor Norah O’Donnell and Face the Nation moderator and chief foreign affairs correspondent Margaret Brennan will moderate.
The stakes will be high for each candidate, but Vance, in particular, is facing low favorability ratings from voters ahead of the debate. On Monday, FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate showed Vance 11 points underwater with voters. Walz had a more positive favorability rating of +3.7 points, but polls show fewer voters have made up their minds about him.
Vance will need to address questions about his previous comments about women and social issues like abortion, which remains a sticking point for the Republican Party. He may do this by doubling down on his past positions, Aaron Kall, director of the University of Michigan’s debate program, told Newsweek,saying neither candidate is particularly well known or defined by voters.
Kall said Vance is a “seasoned and polished” speaker who has ample experience with media interviews and past debates from his 2022 Senate bid. He noted that Vance is unlikely to fall into the same trap that Trump did in his debate against Harris when he let the vice president’s digs about his rally size distract him from defending himself on his opposition to a bipartisan border bill.
“Vance needs to have a good debate performance to get the momentum back,” Kall said.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (L) at the White House on July 3. Ohio Senator JD Vance in New Kensington, Pennsylvania, on August 15. Walz has higher favorability ratings than Vance leading into their debate.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images; Jeff Swensen/Getty Images
Walz, who has seen a warmer reception from voters, will need to avoid making any major mistakes, defend his military record and ensure he can come across as relatable for the Midwestern and Rust Belt swing voters who could determine the outcome of the election, Kall said.
Meena Bose, the executive dean of Hofstra University’s Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs, told Newsweek that with only one presidential debate and a shorter-than-usual campaign with Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket, the VP debate could potentially “make a difference in voter support through clearly and convincingly communicating their campaign’s policy agenda.
Kall said that the debate may be particularly important because it will likely be the final time voters see a debate before Election Day.
Typically, presidential candidates face off in at least one more debate after their running mates, but Trump has thus far declined invites from Harris to participate in one more debate before November. This means both Walz and Vance must “provide compelling closing arguments for their campaigns,” he said.
Kall said their main job will be to provide a “jolt” of energy to their campaigns.
“They need to talk as surrogates for the top of the ticket. The debate is not about them. Generally, people don’t vote because of the vice presidential selection. It’s Harris and Trump that will determine things. They can’t lose sight of that,” he said.
An Echelon Insights poll conducted among 1,005 likely voters nationwide from September 23 to September 25 found that 44 percent of voters view Vance unfavorably, compared to 35 percent who view him favorably.
That same poll found that 41 percent of voters view Walz favorably, while 33 percent view him unfavorably.
Similarly, a Big Village poll conducted among 1,524 likely voters from September 23 to September 25 found that 50 percent of respondents viewed Vance unfavorably, and 41 percent viewed him favorably. Meanwhile, 49 percent of respondents said they viewed Walz favorably, while 40 percent said they viewed him unfavorably.
Vance has “faced difficulty with communicating on the campaign trail and building political support,” Bose said.
“The vice-presidential debate is especially important for Senator Vance to demonstrate executive leadership qualities and deliver a message to expand the campaign’s voting coalition,” she said.
In a statement to Newsweek, RNC spokesperson Taylor Rogers said Vance will “set the record straight on the debate stage,” pointing to Trump’s policies that “lowered taxes, created jobs, and secured the border.”
“Vance will make it clear to voters that Harris and Walz are dangerously liberal, and Trump-Vance is the only ticket that will put America First,” Rogers said.
Newsweek reached out to Harris campaign via email for comment.
Vance, Walz Have Chance to Defend Record in Debate
Vance has made a number of statements over the years that have raised eyebrows from critics, and his remarks about women have drawn backlash on the campaign trail this year.
When Trump announced Vance as his running mate, previous comments he made about women resurfaced. He said in 2021 that when Democrats are in power, the country is being run “by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made, so they want to make the country miserable too.”
Amid criticism, he has defended the comments, saying they were “not a criticism of people who don’t have children.”
“I explicitly said in my remarks, despite the fact the media has lied about this, that this is not about criticizing people who, for various reasons, didn’t have kids. This is about criticizing the Democratic Party for becoming anti-family and anti-child,” he said in a July interview with Megyn Kelly.
More recently, he has faced criticism for spreading claims about migrants in Springfield, Ohio, eating pets, despite local officials saying the allegations, which reportedly began as a Facebook post, are unfounded.
Walz has faced scrutiny over his military record, with some members of the National Guard accusing him of embellishing his record due to questions about his rank. Walz served for seven months as a command sergeant major but ultimately retired before completing the training to have the official title; therefore, his title is officially master sergeant.
He has said he retired as a command sergeant major, which is accurate but has drawn criticism from some National Guard members.
The debate may allow him to defend his military record.
Israel, Economy, Immigration: Most Important Issues Ahead of VP Debate
Beyond personal questions, the two candidates will likely discuss issues including the economy, immigration, foreign policy and reproductive rights, which have defined the presidential race thus far.
Harris has cut into Trump’s advantage on the economy, as inflation has declined amid the COVID-19 recovery, and the Federal Reserves cut interest rates for the first time in years. Immigration remains a major advantage for Trump, while abortion remains one of Harris’ strongest issues.
Foreign policy will also be critical as tensions continue in the Middle East. Israel on Monday reportedly conducted special forces raids in Lebanon against Hezbollah targets ahead of a possible ground operation this week.
The issue will loom over the debate on Tuesday as the conflict between Israel and Hamas is a defining issue of the race. While Trump has cast himself as a strong Israel defender, Harris has walked the tightrope of supporting its right to defend itself while also raising concerns about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza amid its ground operation in the region.
The race between Harris and Trump remains close. FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate shows Harris up only 2.8 percentage points over the former president on Monday, and the race remains even tighter in swing states.
