Polling Nostradamus Buries the Hatchet With Rival Nate Silver

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman says he is ready to end his feud with pollster Nate Silver, another of America’s most renowned political forecasters, after a methodological quarrel that goes back for over a decade.

“I’m here to say, Nate, it’s time that we bury the hatchet and stop criticizing one another. There is absolutely no need for it,” Lichtman said in a video on Monday. “We each do very different things, and we can each stay in our own lane and pursue our forecasts in our own way.”

Newsweek has contacted Silver for a response to Lichtman’s statement.

Lichtman, who has been dubbed by some as America’s polling “Nostradamus,” predicts U.S. elections based on his 1981 “Keys to the White House” model.

The model, which has correctly predicted nine out of the last 10 elections, uses 13 true/false questions—”keys”—to determine the winner of the White House race; Should six or more of the keys be false, the incumbent party is expected to lose the election. If five or fewer are false, the challenger is predicted to win.

However, the nature of his model, and the conclusions it has led Lichtman to, have drawn frequent scrutiny from statistician and FiveThirtyEight founder Silver.

The feud goes back to 2011, when Silver penned an article for The New York Times entitled, “Despite Keys, Obama Is No Lock,” which critiqued the subjectivity of Lichtman’s keys—in particular “incumbent charisma”—and Lichtman’s certainty that Barack Obama would defeat Mitt Romney despite the then dire state of the U.S. economy and the Democrat’s weak approval ratings at the time.

The dispute was reignited in July 2024, following President Biden’s poor debate performance against Donald Trump but prior to his withdrawal from the race.

Lichtman was bullish on a Biden win despite the debate, decrying Democratic attempts to oust him, and sacrifice the electoral advantages of the incumbency, as a “huge mistake.”

On X, Silver wrote: “None of the 13 keys is that the president is unable to reliably complete a sentence, but that seems salient to diagnosing his chances for reelection.”

The back and forth continued with Lichtman calling Silver “a compiler of polls, a clerk,” and Silver offering to wager “250k at even odds” that Trump would defeat Biden.

In early September, Lichtman released his official prediction for the 2024 race, confidently asserting that Kamala Harris would be the next president of the U.S. and again receiving criticism from Silver.

On Friday, Silver responded to Lichtman’s forecast, writing on X: “At least 7 of the keys, maybe 8, clearly favor Trump. Sorry brother, but that’s what the keys say. Unless you’re admitting they’re totally arbitrary?”

On both X and TikTok, Lichtman continued to accuse Silver of misinterpreting the purpose of his model, and claimed that he “doesn’t have the faintest idea how to turn the keys.”

The multiple-post exchange was described by Capitol Forum reporter Paul McLeod as akin to watching “two wizards bickering.”

Despite their differing methodologies and frequent spats, Lichtman now believes the pair should “each do our own thing and respect one another for doing it.”

As Lichtman describes it, Silver’s forecasts are premised on polling figures, while his are based on the “fundamental forces that drive presidential elections.” Both, he argued, have their respective merits.

Lichtman also used the 11-minute video to again respond to accusations—from Silver and others—of pro-Democrat bias, pointing to his prediction of a Trump victory in 2016, before offering his rival words of encouragement.

“I would say God speed to you Nate Silver,” Lichtman added. “Continue what you’re doing, and I’m going to continue what I’m doing.”

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