Russia is close to seizing all of Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region, according to an updated assessment, although it would likely be a victory more for Moscow’s propaganda war than a game-changing win for Russia along the front lines in the embattled east of Ukraine.
As of October 3, Russian troops controlled 98.8 percent of Luhansk, said Angelica Evans, a Russia researcher with the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank that tracks daily changes to the front line.
Luhansk is one of four regions that Russia said it had annexed in September 2022, along with Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Moscow currently does not control all the territory falling under these regions, although it has made gains—particularly in Donetsk—since early this year.
Russia also controls Crimea, to the south of mainland Ukraine, which it annexed in 2014. Kyiv has vowed to reclaim the peninsula.
A Russian serviceman stands by a rocket launcher during a training exercise at an unknown location. As of October 3, Russian troops control 98.8 percent of Luhansk, said Angelica Evans, a researcher with the ISW think tank. This image was supplied to AP by a third party, and could not be independently verified.
Sergey Bobylev / Sputnik via AP
After seizing Crimea, Kremlin-backed separatists in Ukraine’s industrial heartland of Donetsk and Luhansk, known collectively as the Donbas, declared the regions as independent republics in 2014 and battled authorities in Kyiv, before Moscow launched its full-scale invasion effort in February 2022.
Russia said it had seized control of all of Luhansk in summer 2022 after the fall of the city of Lysychansk, but a Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed Moscow’s forces back.
Russian advances in Luhansk have been very slow recently, Evans told Newsweek, with Moscow not prioritizing efforts along this part of the front line. Just a sliver remains in Ukrainian control along Luhansk’s borders with the neighboring Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, also referred to as oblasts.
Russian troops have advanced to the southwest of the Luhansk city of Svatove in recent weeks, Evans said.
A map produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) showing the assessed front lines in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region. Russian troops have advanced to the southwest of the Luhansk city of Svatove in recent weeks, Angelica Evans said.
Institute for the Study of War
On Sunday, Russia’s defense ministry said its troops had captured Makiivka, a village southwest of Svatove sitting close to the Luhansk border with both Kharkiv and Donetsk.
Russian state news agency, Tass, published comments on Tuesday from Andrey Marochko, described by Russian state media as a former or reserve commander in Luhansk, which said Makiivka was the “last major settlement” held by Ukraine in the region.
Moscow seizing control of the entire oblast is “not too far away,” the agency cited Marochko as saying. Kyiv controls “less than one percent” of Luhansk, Marochko said.
Losing control of all of Luhansk would be a blow to Ukrainian morale at a tough moment in Kyiv’s war effort. Russia has, since the start of the year, captured key settlements in Donetsk like the former Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka in February, and the embattled town of Vuhledar earlier this week. Kyiv is fighting a battle of attrition with a determined Moscow, exhausted despite the boon that its surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region offered in August.
Evans suggested that once Russia claims all of Luhansk—and it is not yet clear when that will be—the main advantage to Moscow will be the optics.
“Seizing the remainder of Luhansk Oblast is likely mainly an informational objective and the Kremlin will almost certainly make outsized claims about the seizure of the oblast,” Evans said. “The Kremlin will likely oversell the seizure of Luhansk Oblast within the Russian and global information space as a major battlefield victory.”
The Ukrainian-held territory in Luhansk is largely made up of fields and small settlements, Evans added, meaning Russian advances in the region will not “significantly contribute [to] Russian operational objectives” for this chunk of the front line.
The capture of Luhansk will not be a “major inflection” in Russia’s overall war effort throughout Ukraine, Evans said. Moscow’s operations in Luhansk could have some “tactically significant advances,” Evans added, “but these advances will not significantly impact the battlefield geography of eastern Ukraine.”
