The New York Mets’ season wasn’t doomed from the outset. But their road back to the postseason was a long and winding one without their best-starting pitcher, Kodai Senga.
Senga, who went 12-7 with a 2.98 ERA as a rookie in 2023, was limited to one start in the regular season by virtue of a variety of injuries. A shoulder issue in spring training postponed his 2024 debut until July 26.
Senga sustained a significant calf strain in that game and has been on the injured list ever since. Triceps soreness prevented him from returning in September, and he threw just 25 pitches in a bullpen session earlier this week.
Now, the 31-year-old will be thrust into action in the National League Division Series in a hurry.
The Mets announced Senga will start Game 1 of their NLDS against the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday. Veteran right-hander Zack Wheeler, on a short list of Cy Young candidates after going 12-7 with a 2.57 ERA in the regular season, will start Game 1 for the Phillies.
While Philadelphia can expect a traditional start from Wheeler, the Mets will not be able to expect the same from Senga.
Well, Mendoza just announced Senga as tomorrow’s starter.
— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) October 4, 2024
The 31-year-old threw 73 pitches in his 5.1-inning effort on July 26. Given that his most recent bullpen session consisted of 25 pitches, the best-case scenario for the Mets might see him throw an efficient 50 pitches against the Phillies. According to Will Sammon of The Athletic, “Senga would likely only be able to provide the Mets a short outing — maybe an inning or two.”
Of course, that will be easier said than done. The Phillies had one of MLB‘s most potent offenses in 2024, averaging 4.84 runs per game — sixth out of the 30 teams.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 26: Kodai Senga #34 of the New York Mets leaves a game against the Atlanta Braves alongside manager Carlos Mendoza after an injury during the sixth inning at Citi Field on July 26, 2024 in New York City. Senga will start Game 1 of the NLDS.
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
In a sense, the Mets are already playing with house money.
Monday, they played a doubleheader in Atlanta facing the prospect of being eliminated from the postseason altogether. The Braves and Mets each won a game, allowing them to move on to the Wild Card round.
Thursday in Milwaukee, the Mets trailed 2-0 in the ninth inning against Brewers closer Devin Williams when Pete Alonso stroked a three-run home run to win the game — and the series. For the second time in the span of four days, their season was saved.
Luis Severino started the first game of the Wild Card series against the Brewers, Sean Manaea the second, and Jose Quintana the third. David Peterson finished Thursday’s game for the Mets and could figure into Saturday’s pitching plans as well.
For manager Carlos Mendoza, the risk in including Senga on their NLDS roster is less about what the right-hander can offer them in Game 1 but about what he can do the remainder of the series. Ostensibly he’ll be set up to start again if the series reaches Game 4, but even then his innings figure to be limited. Mendoza figures to rely heavily on his bullpen for the second consecutive postseason round.
If Senga cannot pitch in the remainder of the NLDS, the Mets could simply remove him from their 26-man roster and give the spot to another player. But then Senga would be unavailable to the Mets in the NL Championship Series if they make it that far.
It all amounts to a fascinating game of strategy, centered around a pitcher who has barely pitched in 2024. A strong start from Senga could set the tone for the Mets in the series, while a loss could make the decision to rush him back look foolish in hindsight.
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