We are now onto the next round of the MLB playoffs, with the Divisional Series starting today. Four teams had a bye, which means we get another four series to dive into
The Wild Card round was mostly a dud with three sweeps and one incredibly dramatic non-sweep between the Mets and Brewers. The Mets moved on, while the Brewers lost a heartbreaker.
Elsewhere, the Tigers swept the Astros, the Royals swept the Orioles, and the Padres swept the Braves.
Here are the four matchups on the schedule for today:
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians, 1:08 p.m. ET (TBS)
- New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 4:08 p.m. ET (FOX)
- Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees, 6:38 p.m. ET (TBS)
- San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, 8:38 p.m. ET (FS1)
For this article, we will be diving into our favorite MLB player prop picks today.
Brandon Nimmo Home Run (+710) Fanatics
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 4:08 p.m. ET
Home run props were not kind to us in the Wild Card round, but that is life when betting on such longshot props.
As for this one specifically, Nimmo is a great play to hit a home run, especially at such high odds. Nimmo will be going up against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, which seems like a bad matchup for the batter at first glance.
With that said, and this is something we have been on all year, Wheeler is not nearly as dominant when facing left-handed hitters.
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He allowed 20 home runs total in the regular season, and 15 of those came against LHH in only slightly more at bats to lefties (418) than righties (369).
Nimmo also has had success against Wheeler in the last three years. They have seen each other 20 times, and Nimmo has hit two home runs off Wheeler, with a double and triple against him as well.
This includes the last start Wheeler made against the Mets this season, when Nimmo took him yard in a no-doubter.
Nimmo did not hit a home run in the three-game series against the Brewers, but he came close and consistently hit the ball hard, so he is a great bet at +710 to go yard today.
Brandon Nimmo Home Run (+710): 0.25 Units
Gerrit Cole u5.5 Strikeouts (-105) DraftKings
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees, 6:38 p.m. ET
Fading Cole is always a scary proposition, but in 2024, he did not quite have the dominant year that we have come to expect from him.
He posted the fifth-worst ERA of his 12-year career, and his xERA (3.59), xFIP (3.99) and SIERA (3.79) were all his worst since 2017 (his last year on the Pirates).
This year, he also posted his lowest strikeout rate (25.4%) since ’17. None of these stats are horrible, of course, but they do not show an elite pitcher, either.
This especially becomes an issue against a Royals team that strikes out very infrequently. On the season, they struck out just 19.3 percent of the time against right-handed pitching, which was the third-lowest rate in MLB.
The Royals’ projected nine-man lineup does not have a single batter who strikes out at an “awful” rate (27.5 percent and above). In fact, they only have one batter that even strikes out at a rate greater than 25 percent.
In Game 1 of the Royals series against the Orioles, we were on Corbin Burnes’ strikeout under, which came through as Burnes only struck out three batters (his over/under was 4.5) despite him pitching eight full innings.
Gerrit Cole u5.5 strikeouts (-105): 0.50 Units
Jackson Merrill o1.5 Total Bases (+125) Bet365
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, 8:38 p.m. ET
As we get deeper and deeper into these postseason matchups, there are fewer pitcher targets for batter props.
So, instead of targeting a bad pitcher, we are backing a batter that is red-hot in Jackson Merrill.
In the Padres’ two-game series against the Braves, despite not hitting a home run, he had five HardHits, four of which were 100-plus mph exit velocity. Here is how those at-bats went:
- 104.7 mph exit velocity, 385-foot lineout
- 108.2 mph off the bat, 393-foot triple
- 109.3 mph, 374-foot double
- 99 mph groundout
- 102.5 mph single
The fact that none of those first three were a home run is tragic in itself, which is why the bases prop is the way to go here.
He will be doing up against Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who missed three months from June to September, but came back and made four starts in September.
He was not shelled by any means, but he did allow a decently high barrel rate of 12.2 percent and a 32.50 percent line-drive rate, and overall, batters hit .283 against him in those four starts.
So, while Merrill is unlikely to get one to go yard, he is still a good bet to get to two or more bases to cash this prop.
Jackson Merrill 2+ bases (+125): 0.50 Units
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