Former President Donald Trump‘s return to the site of his assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, for another campaign rally this weekend did not leave swing voters impressed, according to new polling.
An analysis by Impact Social of 37,000 online and social media discussions made on October 5 and 6 using the term “Donald Trump” found that 82 percent of people had negative or neutral sentiments toward the Republican nominee.
“The reality is, if your content is old, people aren’t going to talk about it. And here lies the problem for Trump,” the online monitoring and analysis company wrote in its report. “Political rallies aren’t only about presence.”
Impact Social’s experts read statistically representative samples of posts to produce an analysis. Each post is read from the perspective of a candidate and whether it is seen as “positive” or “negative” depending on who the post is in favor of.
A quarter of posts from people in swing states showed negative views of Trump. The discussion included topics of anti-Trump (43 percent), anti-MAGA (17 percent), his response to Hurricane Helene (9 percent), anti-speech (6 percent), election interference (4 percent), his record in office (3 percent) and anti-Elon Musk (2 percent).
An additional 67 percent of the posts were neutral toward Trump. Only 8 percent were positive and discussed issues like pro-speech (22 percent), pro-Trump (21 percent), anti-Democrat (18 percent), voting for Trump (18 percent), and anti-Harris (3 percent).
“Part of the issue is that Trump no longer has shock value or anything new to say,” Impact Social wrote. “In many senses his speech content serves as a series of trigger warnings. Mention abortion and independents are reminded of Roe, talk of war and they think of Putin, suggest vote rigging and, they speak of SCOTUS and potential election interference.”
File photo of a ballot drop box in front of City Hall in Waterville, Washington. Polling found that independent voters weren’t impressed with former President Donald Trump’s (inset) recent Pennsylvania rally.
Win McNamee/Cindy Shebley/Getty Images
The former president’s speech included his typical talking points, such as immigration, voter fraud and his legal battles.
“Nobody’s gone through what we’ve gone through,” Trump said. “I always say there’s an enemy from within and an enemy on the outside.”
Yet this may not have captivated Trump’s audience. After Trump had been talking for about an hour, people at the rally started to leave.
Impact Social found independent voters commenting that “Trump and Vance are effectively lying their way through this campaign because a lot of Americans are gullible and misinformed.”
Others suggested he would steal Pennsylvania and Georgia. But some called out Trump’s supporters.
“If you are a Republican who doesn’t support Trump keep it to yourself because MAGAts will make your life a living hell if they find out,” one post read.
Who Are the Independent Voters?
Reuters found that independent voters are younger than Republicans and Democrats. Twenty-six percent are from Generation Z, born between 1997 and 2012, and 36 percent are millennials, born between 1981 and 1996. The economy and efforts to reduce crime are at the top of the minds of Independent voters, Reuters found.
A recent poll by the Star Tribune/ MPR News/ KARE 11 in Minnesota shows that independent voters will likely decide the election. The poll found that 43 percent of independent voters in Minnesota were likely to support the Republican ticket, 41 percent opting for Democrats, and 14 percent undecided.
The Independent found last month that these voters are swaying toward the Democratic ticket in the swing states, though, with the exception of Arizona, where Trump has a substantial lead. Harris’ lead ranges, however, from 20 points in Wisconsin to just 5 points in Pennsylvania among Independent voters.
“Trump may be banking on his turnout being enough to take victory,” Impact Social wrote. “With nothing else to say Trump will be hoping for events to turn in a way which appeal to his persona.”
