The drama is high in this divisional round of the MLB playoffs, as every single series is tied 1-1. This is the first time in MLB history where that has been the case.
The Phillies were the only home team to lose Game 1, but then quickly became the only home team to win Game 2, which is how we got to each series being tied.
We have two games, both airing on FS1, on the schedule tonight. The matchups and start times are listed below:
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets, 5:08 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres, 9:08 p.m. ET
For this article, we will be detailing our favorite MLB Divisional Series player prop picks for Tuesday, October 8.
Jackson Merrill Home Run (+475) BetMGM
We were able to get one of our home run predictions correct yesterday (thank you, Salvador Perez), so here is hoping we can stay hot and get another one today.
As for the play on Jackson Merrill, we’re backing a better who has been red-hot at the plate, while also fading a pitcher, Walker Buehler, who somewhat struggles against left-handed hitters.
BET $5, GET $200 BONUS BETS
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK
$1,000 FIRST BET RESET (MUST USE CODE NEWSWEEK)
ESPN BET
UP TO $1,000 BONUS BETS
FANATICS SPORTSBOOK
$1,500 FIRST-BET OFFER
BETMGM
$200 BONUS OR $1,000 FIRST-BET SAFETY NET
BET365
$1,000 FIRST BET
CAESARS SPORTSBOOK
BET $5, WIN $300 BONUS BETS
FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK
To start with the batter, not only did Merrill hit a home run in his last game, but he had three total hits that were 100-plus mph exit velocity. The home run traveled 383 feet and had an EV of 103.8, while the EV on his other two hits was 100.9 and 101.3, respectively.
Merrill is coming off a two-game series against the Braves in which he had an additional four HardHits that were 100-plus mph off the bat, plus one other with a 99-mph EV.
So, despite the fact that he had not hit a home run in these playoffs heading into Game 2 of this series, he had been seeing the ball well, and that finally came to fruition with a home run last game.
Now looking into the pitching matchup, in the last two months against lefties, Buehler has allowed a home run every 20 at-bats, with a HR/9 of 1.80 and an ISO rate allowed of .235.
With the way Merrill has been hitting, we like him to stay hot against Buehler tonight.
Jackson Merrill Home Run (+475): 0.25 Units
Brandon Nimmo Home Run (+625) BetMGM
Of the four pitchers today, there were only two reasonable home run targets to go after: Buehler against lefties, as we previously detailed, and Phillies starter Aaron Nola. For the previous two seasons, Nola has struggled with giving up the deep ball, and that was something that plagued him late this year.
Nola made six regular-season starts from Sept. 1-29 and allowed a total of seven home runs in those appearances. That stretch included a Sept. 13 game against the Mets in which Nola gave up two home runs in the same inning and only lasted 4.1 innings.
Overall, Nola had a HR/9 of 1.91 in September.
Nimmo, meanwhile, has been crushing the baseball recently. He hit a home run in Game 2, a 390-foot rocket that was 107.9 mph off the bat, and had another 371-foot lineout that was 104.8 mph.
The biggest issue for Nola has been his knuckle-curve, which is the pitch responsible for four of the five home runs he has allowed to left-handed hitters over the past two months.
That is a problem going up against Nimmo, who homered off Nola off that exact pitch when these two saw each other back in September.
Look for Nimmo to stay hot tonight.
Brandon Nimmo Home Run (+625): 0.25 Units
Walker Buehler u2.5 strikeouts (+132) Bet365
This is admittedly a scary under, taking Buehler to not even reach three strikeouts in this game, but it is a worthy play, especially at the +132 odds that we are getting.
There are a couple reasons the under is tempting here, but more than anything, it is due to the matchup against the Padres.
On the year, the Padres had the lowest strikeout rate in MLB by a mile. Their team K rate was 17.6 percent, and the next-closest team was the Astros at 19.3 percent.
To put into context how infrequently the Padres strike out, that 1.7 percent gap between them and the Astros is the same as the gap between the Astros and the team with the eighth-lowest strikeout rate.
Looking at their lineup, the Padres only have one batter who strikes out above 25 percent of the time against right-handed pitching (Kyle Higashioka), and he bats ninth in their lineup.
Buehler had at least three strikeouts in 11 of 16 games this season, but he posted a total of two and one strikeouts, respectively, in a pair of starts against the Padres.
Buehler’s last start of the regular season came on Sept. 26 against San Diego, when he pitched five full innings and only gave up one run, but he also only had one strikeout in that start.
The under is the play here.
Walker Buehler under 2.5 strikeouts (+132): 0.50 Units
Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
