Ted Cruz has a five-point lead over Democratic rival Colin Allred in the Republican senator’s battle to secure reelection in November according to a new poll.
The Marist Poll survey of 1,186 Texas likely voters put Cruz on 51 percent ahead of Allred, who currently sits in the House of Representatives, on 46 percent. However the poll did put Allred ahead with independent voters by 51 percent against 43 percent. The survey was conducted from October 3 to 7 and had a 3.6 point margin of error.
Notably the Marist Poll result gives Cruz a stronger lead than recent surveys by Florida Atlantic University and RMG Research, which put the Republican incumbent ahead by just three percent. Earlier this month Cruz told Fox News Democrats were “coming after me with everything they have” later adding “if they take Texas, they can take over the country completely.”
The new survey also has good news for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who has a comfortable eight-point lead over his opposite number Kamala Harris with 53 percent of the vote against 46 percent.
Retaining Cruz’s Texas seat would be an important step toward the Republican goal of seizing the Senate in November. Currently the upper chamber has a slim Democratic majority, with 51 Senators aligned with the party versus 49 Republicans.
However the GOP is widely expected to take the West Virginia seat currently occupied by Joe Manchin, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats and isn’t standing for reelection. Democrats have been targeting the seats of Cruz and Senator Rick Scott of Florida with a recently announced “multimillion-dollar investment” in TV advertising.
Newsweek contacted Senator Cruz and Representative Allred for comment via email on Thursday outside of regular office hours.
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) speaking during the second day of the 2024 Republican National Convention in July. Cruz has a five-point lead over Democratic challenger Colin Allred according to a new poll.
KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/AFP/GETTY
By contrast to the Marist Poll, a survey of 811 registered voters conducted by Florida’s Atlantic University and Mainstream Research over October 2-6 put Cruz ahead by just three points, with 46 percent of the vote against 43 percent.
In response Professor Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at Florida’s Atlantic University, said: “These results highlight the continuing competitiveness of Texas in national elections. The gender and education gaps we’re seeing could be crucial factors in determining the outcome in November.”
An RMG Research poll of 779 likely voters, which took place over September 25-27 for the Napolitan Institute, also gave Cruz a three-point lead with 50 percent of the vote against 47 percent for Allred.
Earlier this month Allred announced the formation of ‘Republicans for Allred’ during interviews with ABC 13 and the Houston Chronicle, with the new group to be chaired by former Republican state Representative Jason Villalba and former Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger.
In a statement provided to Newsweek a Cruz spokesperson attacked the group as “another fake, feel-good vanity project for Allred.”
