With just 25 days until the high-stakes White House election, Newsweek turned to ChatGPT for its predictions on this neck-and-neck race, and which candidate might capture key swing states.
While polling website FiveThirtyEight has had Harris a small favorite in it’s forecast since early August, there are only 18 Electoral College votes separating the two candidates in its most recent simulation.
A lot is riding on this year’s seven swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin—together worth 93 Electoral College votes.
Who will win the 2024 presidential election?
Newsweek asked ChatGPT, “Can you tell me who you believe will win the 2024 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?”
The generative AI tool was also asked to give reasons for its answer, and to discuss the respective strengths and weaknesses of both candidates.
“It would be a highly competitive race, but difficult to predict with certainty,” ChatGPT responded, before listing off each candidates attributes and the “factors that could influence the election outcome.”
Kamala Harris
Strengths:
ChatGPT named “diverse appeal,” “experience in leadership,” “focus on progressive issues” and “campaign skills” as the vice president’s key strengths.
“As the first female, Black, and South Asian vice president,” ChatGPT said Harris could “energize key demographic groups, such as African Americans, women, and younger voters.”
On her campaign skills, the chatbot said, “Harris is an experienced campaigner who can communicate well in debates and town halls, potentially helping her in the face-to-face aspects of the campaign.”
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Vice President’s residence on October 7, 2024, in Washington, D.C. ChatGPT named “diverse appeal,” “experience in leadership,” “focus on progressive issues” and “campaign skills” as the Harris’ key strengths.
Kent Nishimura/Getty Images
Weaknesses:
“Perception of ineffectiveness” was listed as a key Harris weakness by ChatGPT, alongside her “polarizing image,” the “historical hurdle” of VP’s ascending to the presidency, and her “lack of broad enthusiasm.”
“While she might have strong support from specific demographic groups, Harris has not yet demonstrated widespread appeal across the entire Democratic base, especially among centrist and older voters who may be wary of her progressive leanings.”
Donald Trump
Strengths:
ChatGPT listed “strong base,” “populist messaging,” “campaign savvy” and “record on the economy” as the former president’s greatest attributes.
“Trump is a media powerhouse,” it said. “His ability to dominate news cycles and keep his supporters engaged, either through rallies or social media, gives him a considerable advantage in framing the political narrative.”
Former President Donald Trump delivers remarks at a rally. ChatGPT listed “strong base,” “populist messaging,” “campaign savvy” and “record on the economy” as the former president’s greatest attributes.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Weaknesses:
Meanwhile, Trump’s “polarization” of the American electorate, “legal troubles,” “exhaustion factor” and “demographics” were listed as his main vulnerabilities.
“Some voters, including Republicans, might feel exhausted by Trump’s chaotic style of governance and constant media drama,” ChatGPT said. “This fatigue could open the door for Harris to present herself as a calmer, more stable option.”
Who will win the swing states?
Newsweek then asked ChatGPT, “Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, who will win each of the swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) in the 2024 presidential election?”
The chatbot was asked to give reasons for its answer, and to draw upon polling from FiveThirtyEight and other sources.
Arizona – 11 votes – Trump
“Arizona remains highly competitive, but recent polling shows Trump with a slight edge, although within the margin of error. Arizona’s growing suburban population and shifting demographics are making it increasingly unpredictable.”
Georgia – 16 votes – Unclear
“Georgia, which turned blue in 2020, is again in play. Polls here indicate a tight race, with neither candidate securing a clear lead. The state’s high voter turnout and demographic changes, particularly among Black voters, will be pivotal.”
Michigan – 15 votes – Harris
“Harris has a slight advantage in Michigan, a key Rust Belt state that swung back to Democrats in 2020. Union support and economic issues will be crucial here, though Trump’s appeal to working-class voters remains strong.”
Nevada – 6 votes – Harris
“Nevada has been leaning slightly Democratic in recent elections, and Harris holds a slim lead in the polls. However, Trump remains competitive, and the Latino vote could be decisive.”
North Carolina – 16 votes – Trump
“North Carolina is leaning toward Trump, but the race is far from over. The state has been a Republican stronghold in recent years, but urban growth and younger voters could shift the dynamics.”
Pennsylvania – 19 votes – Harris
“Harris is slightly favored in Pennsylvania, another Rust Belt state critical to both campaigns. The state’s suburban and rural divides will be key, as will voter turnout in cities like Philadelphia.”
Wisconsin – 10 votes – Harris
“Wisconsin, like Michigan, leans slightly Democratic, but Trump remains competitive. This state has proven to be a battleground, with economic issues and rural voters playing a major role.”
The map above shows FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages across the U.S. on October 10, and which candidates are currently holding the battleground states.
The latest figures show the swing state’s trending in line with ChatGPT’s responses, aside from a slight lead for Trump in Georgia where the chatbot said the race was too tight to call.
To have a chance of victory, Trump will likely need to recapture at least some of the swing states lost to Biden in 2020, mainly Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona or Wisconsin, while also holding on to states like Florida and North Carolina.
Harris, meanwhile, will aim to defend the Democrats’ “blue wall” in the Midwest while hoping to keep 2020 flipped states like Georgia and Arizona in the win column. If she were able to win Florida or North Carolina, this would drastically increase her chances of victory.
When will the votes be cast?
If the 2020 election is an indicator, the majority votes will be cast on November 5.
However, only a slim majority (54 percent) cast in-person votes last time around, and millions of Americans will have already made their choice through absentee or mail-in ballots before this date.
When should I register to vote in the US election?
In all but one state—North Dakota—citizens must be registered to vote before casting their ballots.
Voters can do so by visiting vote.gov to begin the registration process. However, deadlines have already passed for many states, with the remainder fast approaching.
States in which voters are still able to register are: Alabama (October 21), California (October 21), Colorado (October 28), Connecticut (October 18), Delaware (October 12), D.C. (October 15), Hawaii (October 28), Illinois (October 20), Kansas (October 15), Louisiana (October 15), Maine (October 15), Maryland (October 15), Massachusetts (October 26), Michigan (October 21), Minnesota (October 15), Nebraska (October 25), Nevada (October 23) and New Hampshire, which requires registration six to 13 days prior to the official Election Day, depending on which area voters live in.
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