Former President Donald Trump is leading his opponent Kamala Harris among early voters in the swing states, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted by Harvard University, HarrisX, and The Harris Poll between October 11 and 13, found that Trump has a narrow lead among early voters in the battleground states, with 48 percent of the vote to Harris’ 47 percent.
The poll surveyed 3,145 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. It did not specify how many early voters were surveyed.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Democrats typically vote earlier and by mail more than Republicans do. A recent poll by Gallup, published on October 9, found that 46 percent of Democrats planned on voting early, compared to 31 percent of Republicans.
The poll also found that Harris leads among early voters nationwide, 51 percent to Trump’s 43.
Former President Donald Trump gestures at a campaign town hall on Monday, Oct. 14, 2024, in Oaks, Pennsylvania. Trump leads Harris among early voters, according to a new poll.
Alex Brandon/AP
Early voters could be crucial to securing victory in the battleground states. Roughly 70 percent of the more than 150 million votes cast in 2020 being cast before Election Day — a huge increase from previous years that had much to do with the COVID pandemic.
The Harvard University poll found that Trump was leading among likely voters in battleground states, 49 percent to Harris’ 47 percent.
But Harris was leading among likely voters nationwide, on 49 percent to Trump’s 47 percent, with the former president leading among male voters, white voters, voters of Asian origin, as well as with rural voters. Harris led among female voters, Black and Latino voters as well as with urban and suburban voters.
Harris is likely to win the popular vote in November, with FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker putting her 2.4 points ahead of Trump nationally as of Monday. If Harris wins the toss-up states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin as well as Nebraska’s 2nd District, she reaches the electoral threshold required to win.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, Harris is projected to win in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska’s 2nd District for a total of 276 Electoral College votes, barring a major upset elsewhere, which would give her enough votes to take her over the line. The pollster predicts Trump will win in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him 262 votes overall.
But RealClearPolitics’ forecast shows that, taking into account the RCP polling average in each state, including toss-ups, Harris is to win in Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd District, while Trump will win in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him 302 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 236.
A Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll published last week showed Trump leading in every swing state. The biggest lead was 5 points in Georgia. The poll, conducted between October 6 and 9, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
