Forecasters are saying that potential Tropical Storm Nadine is going to be “blocked” from forming in the Gulf Coast, saving the region from a potential third powerful storm in less than a month.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been tracking storm AL94 for possible development over the past week or so. If it develops into a tropical storm, it would earn the name Nadine, and potentially threaten the same areas battered by Hurricanes Helene and Milton in recent weeks.
But according to WFLA meteorologist Jeff Berardelli, the Gulf of Mexico “is closed for business” from major storms for the foreseeable future, thanks to a high-pressure system north of AL94’s path.
“The Gulf of Mexico is closed for business for at least the next 10 days by a blocking ridge over the [Eastern] US and a trough off the East Coast,” Berardelli said in a post to X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday afternoon. “If a tropical system forms it will be blocked, when it reaches the fork in the road it will either duck south or be sheared northeast.”
This graphic from the National Hurricane Center shows the chance of current systems in the mid-Atlantic forming into a tropical storm over the next seven days. Forecasters say that storm AL94—which has the potential of becoming Tropical Storm Nadine—will likely not impact the United States head-on.
National Hurricane Center
Meteorologist Chris Mulcahy echoed in a post to X on Monday that while AL94 will likely form within the next week, “There is a lot of FALSE hype about this storm.”
“A high pressure system will keep this from creeping into the Gulf which will eliminate a Florida Gulf coast landfall or Carolina’s impacts,” Mulcahy added.
The NHC said on Tuesday that AL94 has a “medium chance,” or from 40 percent to 60 percent, of becoming a tropical depression this week. The center describes the storm as “an area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic” that is producing “disorganized showers and thunderstorms.”
“This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and
environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week,” read a forecast outlook from the center posted at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday. “A tropical depression could form as the system approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.”
Lead AccuWeather hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva previously told Newsweek that his team is “highly confident that something is going to develop” out of AL94, although he added it was doubtful the storm will have a direct impact on the United States. Instead, the storm would likely pass through Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica.
The NHC is also tracking a storm triggering showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, and said Tuesday that “some gradual development is possible if the system stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward towards Central America.” That system has shown a low, or 20 percent chance, of formation over the last seven days.
“Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week,” the center added in its latest forecast.
