Significantly more registered Democrats have voted in the 2024 presidential election thus far than registered Republicans, according to an analysis of early and absentee voting by TargetSmart, a Democratic Party-linked data company.
A TargetSmart analysis published on Wednesday, 20 days before the November 5 election, concluded that 3,845,372 registered Democrats had voted so far, compared with 2,550,036 Republicans and 634,091 unaffiliated. The data also showed that as of Wednesday, more registered Democrats than Republicans had voted in the crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, though the GOP was ahead in Nevada.
Early voting played a crucial role in the 2020 presidential election due to the coronavirus pandemic, which discouraged many voters from going to the polls in person. Donald Trump, who is continuing to repeat discredited claims that the 2020 contest was rigged against him, has been highly critical of the practice, claiming “anytime you have mail-in voting, you’re going to have fraud.”
However, more recently, Trump’s campaign has been less hostile, even calling for restrictions on early voting to be lifted for those hit by Hurricane Helene in North Carolina.
Polling shows the contest between Harris and Trump is close, especially in swing states.
A FiveThirtyEight analysis of recent surveys published on Tuesday gave Harris a national lead of 2.4 points—though she could receive this and still lose due to the Electoral College system. The latest study by 338Canada has Trump as the favorite to win the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while on Thursday, Betfair gave Harris odds of 5/4 (44.4 percent) on overall victory.
People walk to cast their ballot during early voting in Tucson, Arizona, on October 16. More registered Democrats than Republicans have cast their votes thus far, according to a study.
OLIVIER TOURON/AFP/GETTY
According to the TargetSmart data, early and absentee voting in 2024, 20 days before the election, is significantly lower than in 2020, when many states encouraged the practices due to the coronavirus pandemic. The group claims that 20 days before the 2020 presidential election, some 10,597,657 registered Democrats had cast their ballots, along with 7,007,791 registered Republicans and 2,178,977 voters without party affiliation.
Newsweek reached out to representatives of the Kamala Harris and Donald Trump presidential election campaigns for comment on Thursday outside of regular office hours via email.
Since its founding, TargetSmart has worked closely with a number of Democratic politicians. The company’s mission is to “empower forward-thinking campaigns, companies, governments, labor unions and non-profits.”
In Pennsylvania, which Trump won in 2016 but lost to Joe Biden in 2020, 427,442 registered Democrats had voted as of October 16, according to TargetSmart, compared with 172,163 Republicans. Both totals were higher than the respective figures in 2020, likely showing the intense focus on the Keystone State in this contest. The TargetSmart figures claim that in 2020, 418,799 registered Democrats voted in Pennsylvania 20 days before the election, along with 141,451 Republicans.
Democrats also have a substantial lead in Wisconsin, in contrast to the same stage in the 2020 election cycle when the Republicans were ahead. According to TargetSmart, 106,942 registered Democrats have already voted in the state, ahead of 49,944 registered Republicans. In 2020 the GOP led at this stage with 314,267 voted against 304,295.
The picture is similar in Michigan, where the Democratic lead is substantially bigger than 20 days before the 2020 election, according to TargetSmart.
The data indicates that 429,970 registered Democrats have voted so far in the state, compared with 275,061 Republicans. In 2020, 20 days before the election, the comparable figures were 550,326 Democrats and 508,923 Republicans.
In North Carolina, the TargetSmart model claims 31,801 Democrats have voted thus far in the 2024 presidential contest, ahead of the GOP on 24,240. Both figures are well down on the same stage in the 2020 election, when 326,078 Democrats and 174,369 Republicans voted early or by absentee ballot.
For Georgia, which Biden won in 2020, this year’s contest is much closer than the one four years ago in terms of early voting. TargetSmart calculated that 154,229 registered Democrats have voted thus far in the state against 151,649 Republicans. By contrast, 20 days before the 2020 contest, the Democrats were ahead by 507,888 registered voters against 151,649.
Nevada is the only one of the main swing states where the Republicans currently have the lead, with 4,557 registered GOP voters having voted thus far, according to TargetSmart, compared with 1,825 Democrats. However, the sample is very small as voting only opened this week. By contrast, 20 days before the 2020 election, 79,771 Democrats had voted in the state, compared with 50,960 Republicans.
In Arizona, where early voting began last week, some 29,665 registered Democrats have already cast their ballots, according to TargetSmart, compared with 3,013 Republicans. Both figures are well behind what they were 20 days before the 2020 election when 107,682 Democrats had voted against 89,176 Republicans.
