A poll has found that Vice President Kamala Harris‘ lead in New York is growing, following earlier polls suggesting the Empire State’s results could be closer in 2024 than in the past few elections.
New York is a reliably blue state, and Democratic candidates typically win statewide easily because of massive margins in New York City. But several polls show a closer race this year, with some polls even showing a single-digit race on the presidential level, though forecasters have never viewed the state as particularly competitive.
A new Siena College poll found that Harris is increasing her vote share in New York. The poll comes just days before Trump is set to hold a rally at Madison Square Garden, the famed venue in New York City.
In a two-way race, Harris leads Trump by 19 points (58 percent to 39 percent), according to the Siena College survey, which polled 872 likely voters from October 13 to 17. When other candidates were included in the poll, Harris’ margin slightly narrowed to 17 points (54 percent to 37 percent).
Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg wrote in a press release that “the increase in Harris’ lead comes from Black, white and Latino voters, as well as younger and middle-aged voters.”
Former President Donald Trump speaks in the South Bronx on May 2 in New York City. A poll shows Vice President Kamala Harris’ lead over Trump growing in the state.
JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Imagesv
“The gender gap is also widening, with men supporting Trump 54-43%, up a little from 52-46% last month, and women overwhelmingly supporting Harris, 71-25%, up from 64-32% in September,” Greenberg wrote.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
In a statement to Newsweek, Republican National Committee spokesperson Anna Kelly pointed to Trump’s polls in battleground states, which remain close.
“Even after the Democrats have spent over $200 million trying to redefine Kamala Harris, President Trump is winning or tied in every battleground because his message is resonating with voters across the country,” she wrote.
She told Newsweek that more Americans identify as Republicans for the first time since 1984 because “Kamala Harris and the Democrat Party’s dangerously liberal policies have failed the hardworking men and women of America.”
Newsweek also reached out to the Harris campaign for comment via email.
Polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight showed Harris leading Trump by 1.7 points nationally on Tuesday, a decrease from September 22, when Harris led by 2.9 points.
A September 11 to 16 Siena College poll, which surveyed 1,003 likely voters, showed Harris with a lead of 13 points in a two-way race (55 percent to 42 percent), and 12 percent when other candidates were included (52 percent to 40 percent).
A June 12 to June 17 Siena College poll of 805 registered voters showed President Joe Biden, who later exited the presidential race, with an 8-point lead over Trump (47 percent to 39 percent).
Trump is scheduled to hold his Madison Square Garden rally on October 27, about a week before the November 5 election. He has held several other campaign events in the state, including rallies in the Bronx and Nassau County on Long Island.
But Harris is still expected to easily carry the state, which is classified as “Safe Democrat” by the Cook Political Report. Biden won New York by more than 23 points in 2020. Only California, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont gave Biden more votes.
Still, there have been signs that Republicans have been doing better in New York. In addition to polls suggesting the race could be close, Republicans hope to duplicate gains they made during the 2022 midterms.
Although Democrats overperformed the midterm expectations in most states, New York was one of the few states that saw a “red wave” two years ago. Republicans won five of the state’s six competitive congressional districts. Also, the gubernatorial race was closer than expected, with Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul winning by only 6.4 points.
