Donald Trump has said he is “making a move for New Jersey,” a state he lost by more than ten points in both 2016 and 2020, and which last backed a Republican in 1988.
Speaking at a Tuesday rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, the Republican presidential candidate exaggerated his crowd sizes at three campaign rallies.
“We had 101,000 people in Butler. Think of that,” Trump told the crowd. “We had 107,000 people in New Jersey. We’re making a move for New Jersey too. And two weeks ago in California, we had 109,000 people.”
In 2020, Trump lost New Jersey to Joe Biden by more than 700,000 votes, trailing him by at least 15 percent. In 2016, Trump lost New Jersey to Hillary Clinton by more than 500,000 votes, trailing her by upward of 14 percent.
Donald Trump at a rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, May 11, 2024. At a North Carolina rally, Trump said he was “making a move for New Jersey,” a state he lost by more than ten points in both 2016 and 2020, and which last backed a Republican in 1988.
Matt Rourke/ASSOCIATED PRESS
The only presidential poll conducted in the state this year since Harris became the Democratic candidate was conducted by ActiVote between September 4 and October 2. It surveyed 400 likely voters, of which 56 percent supported Harris and 44 percent supported Trump, giving the Vice President a 12-point lead.
Online election betting odds website Polymarket gives Harris a 95 percent chance of winning New Jersey, and Trump a 5 percent chance.
Trump’s comment was accompanied by three false and inflated estimates of the crowd sizes at his rallies. He frequently exaggerates attendance figures and says his numbers are evidence of widespread support in the area.
There is no evidence to support Trump’s claim that 107,000 attended his rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, although he has repeated this claim before. A Newsweek analysis reported that between 30,000 and 40,000 people attended, quoting the Mayor of Wildwood, and Fox News host Jesse Watters.
There is no evidence to support Trump’s claim that 101,000 attended his second rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, when he returned to the site of his attempted assassination. A Newsweek analysis found that the crowd was “almost certainly less than 57,000” and likely closer to 30,000.
There is no evidence to support Trump’s claim that 109,000 people attended his rally in Coachella, California, although he has repeated the claim before. The Riverside County Fire Marshall estimated the venue could accommodate up to 15,000 people.
Trump has history in the Garden State. Between 1984 and 2009, he owned three casinos in Atlantic City, New Jersey, although all went bankrupt multiple times, costing him $700 million.
Earlier this month, he also claimed he would “make a play for New York,” another state where he trails Harris by double digits in polling. He is due to host a rally in Madison Square Garden later this week.
Newsweek has contacted Trump’s campaign via email for comment.
