Political strategist James Carville has said he is “certain” Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election in an op-ed published in the New York Times.
As of Wednesday morning, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slim lead over former President Donald Trump in national polling.
According to data from polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Harris is ahead by an average of 1.7 percentage points, with 48.1 percent support compared to Trump’s 46.4 percent.
Carville highlighted the GOP’s consistent losses since 2018, Harris’s edge in fundraising over Trump, and the inclination of American voters to turn away from the former president once more as the reasoning for his prediction.
This combination of file photos shows Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump, left, speaking at a campaign rally, Oct. 18, 2024, in Detroit, and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, right, speaking at a campaign rally in Green Bay, Wis., Oct. 17, 2024. Political strategist James Carville said he is “certain” Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election in an op-ed published in the New York Times.
AP
“Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States. Of this, I am certain,” he said.
He wrote in an op-ed that the GOP has been on a “losing streak” since the 2018 midterms.
He said, “The biggest reason Mr. Trump will lose is that the whole Republican Party has been on a losing streak since Mr. Trump took it over. See 2018: the largest House landslide for Democrats in a midterm election since Watergate. See 2020: He was decisively bucked from the White House by Joe Biden. See 2022: an embarrassment of a midterm for Republicans off the heels of Dobbs.
“And the Democrats have been performing well in special elections since Trump appointees on the Supreme Court helped take away a basic right of American women. Guess what? Abortion is on the ballot again—for president.
Harris has raised $1 billion in campaign funds since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed her candidacy.
Carville said the funds have “given Ms. Harris the resources she needs to persuade swing voters with ads and to organize on the ground.”
The polling strategist, who was the mastermind behind Bill Clinton‘s 1992 victory, said he believes voters will reject the former president once again.
“A vast majority of Americans are rational, reasonable people of good will. I refuse to believe that the same country that has time and again overcome its mistakes to bend its future toward justice will make the same mistake twice. America overcame Mr. Trump in 2020. I know that we know we are better than this.”
His remarks represent a shift in tone after he said he was “worried” for Democrats following the impact of Hurricane Milton.
It comes after Carville told CNN that he is “not a fan” of Harris‘ recent media blitz as part of campaign efforts.
Carville previously said Trump “knows he’s in deep trouble”—and it’s “driving him crazy” on journalist Greg Sargent’s podcast The Daily Blast.
Meanwhile, exclusive polling by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek shows abortion has overtaken immigration to become the second most important issue, behind the economy, for voters heading into the 2024 election.
