Nearly 20,000 more registered Republicans have voted in Nevada thus far in the presidential election than registered Democrats, according to data released on Wednesday, which one local politics expert described as “unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle.”
According to figures from the Nevada Secretary of State’s office, shared on X by Decision Desk data analyst Michael Pruser, 159,388 registered Republicans had voted in the Silver State as of Wednesday evening, well ahead of the 140,878 Democrats and 97,529 voters with a different or no party affiliation.
The early results in the key swing state come as a blow to the Democrats, who have historically performed well with early and mail in voters. Recent surveys suggest the race remains too close, with election website FiveThirtyEight, which analyzes survey data, giving Trump a 51 percent chance of victory in November versus 49 percent for Harris.
Jon Ralston, editor of The Nevada Independent, described the results as “unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle” on X, and said there is “no good news” in the figures for Democrats in a blogpost on his website.
He wrote: “I now feel like I am in the upside-down world. In past cycles, I would be telling you how the Dems were slowly building a firewall in Clark (tens of thousands more ballots than Republicans). They have successfully done this in every presidential election since 2008.
“But the opposite is happening: Thanks to a rural tsunami, the GOP has moved out to a substantial ballot lead.”
Clark County is by some margin the most populous in the state containing Las Vegas, where the Democrats have traditionally performed best.
Ralston added that even if a majority of the 97,529 voters without major party affiliation back Harris, it still could leave Trump with an overall lead.
He said: “There are about 100,000 non-major party voters in the mix, or 12 percent of their total—that’s substantially lower than the turnout by both major parties and part of the reason I think we should discount most Nevada polls. No one knows how they will break, although Dems are optimistic because they skew young.
“But even if Kamala Harris has a 10-point lead among indies in the current makeup of the electorate, if Trump is holding his base, he is ahead by 6,000 votes or so. Not a lot, but a lead nevertheless.”
Newsweek contacted the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidential election campaigns for comment via email on Thursday outside of regular office hours.
Donald Trump, speaks during a campaign rally with Turning Point Action and Turning Point PAC at Gas South Arena on October 23, 2024 in Duluth, Georgia. Republicans have built up an “unheard of” early voting lead in the battleground state of Nevada according to newly released figures.
Alex Wong/GETTY
According to figures from the Nevada Secretary of State recorded by the University of Florida as of October 22, 131,516 registered Republicans had voted in Nevada compared with 119,798 Democrats. The data showed Republicans had a big early voting lead of 73,858 voters against 38,576, though this was partially balanced by a Democrat lead of 81,222 to 57,658 in mail in ballots.
In better news for Harris, a study released by election analytics website 383Canada on Tuesday had her as favorite to win overall with an average of 286 Electoral College votes, above the 270 needed for victory. In the key swing states, the model concluded Harris was most likely to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina whereas Trump was favored in Nevada and Arizona.
On Wednesday, Harris took part in a CNN townhall event during which she was challenged by host Anderson Cooper over the Biden administration’s record on illegal immigration and her support for a border bill which included $650 million towards wall construction.
Harris used the occasion to say she believes Trump is a fascist, echoing comments made in a recent interview by the Republican nominee’s former White House chief-of-staff John Kelly who also claimed his former boss had praised Adolf Hitler’s generals. Trump campaign advisor Alex Pfeiffer told Newsweek Kerry’s claims were “absolutely false,” adding: “President Trump never said this.”
