Statistician Nate Silver has suggested that the negative publicity surrounding former President Donald Trump‘s New York rally could be good news for his Democratic opponent for the White House, Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump’s Sunday rally in New York’s Madison Square Garden drew headlines following controversial remarks made by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, a host of the podcast Kill Tony who’s known for his “roast” style of comedy. Hinchcliffe said Puerto Rico was a “floating island of garbage.”
The comments have since attracted criticism from a number of high-profile Puerto Rican figures and some Trump allies. Trump’s campaign has distanced itself from the remark.
“This joke does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign,” senior Trump campaign adviser Danielle Alvarez said in a statement.
In a post to his Silver Bulletin blog, titled “Trump’s dominating the news again. Maybe that’s good news for Harris,” Silver said there was evidence the rally seemed to be “drawing broader attention.” He noted that the days following the New York rally were the top days of Google search traffic for the Republican nominee since the second assassination attempt against him in September.
Silver also highlighted that searches for Hinchcliffe had passed searches for Taylor Swift.
Former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York on October 27. Statistician Nate Silver has suggested the backlash following the rally could present a “lifeline” for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
The statistician concluded the post: “Harris is more popular than Trump, but has had trouble driving a substantive message—in part because she’s running away both from her unpopular positions in 2019 and her unpopular boss, Joe Biden.
“So a final week that’s all about Trump—and shows off some of the most unappealing elements of his campaign—could throw Harris a lifeline.”
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email outside standard working hours.
Speaking to Newsweek, Professor Emeritus Iwan Morgan at University College London said that the Democratic Party could capitalize on the backlash from the rally, noting that the likes of Jennifer Lopez and Ricky Martin have signaled their support for Harris to their sizable fan bases following Sunday’s rally.
However, the professor added, the controversy was unlikely to represent a “lifeline” for Harris, as the race is still effectively a toss-up between the two candidates.
“I would not talk of a lifeline to Harris. It’s really too close to call still. I think the rally was expressive of Republican overconfidence that their victory is assured. It is not so by any means,” Morgan said.
With one week to go until Election Day and with early voting well underway, Harris and Trump are neck and neck in national polls, often separated by a minuscule degree well within the margin of error.
According to 538’s national poll average, Harris leads by 1.4 points.
In the all-important swing states, the race is just as close, and Trump has a slight advantage in most.
As of early Tuesday, the Republican narrowly led in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, while Harris led in Michigan and the candidates were tied in Wisconsin.
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