Even though Tuesdays always feature a lighter NBA betting slate than normal, the good news is they generally feature some outstanding matchups.
Tonight is no different, with the Mavericks and Timberwolves facing off at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT. This is, of course, a rematch of the Western Conference Finals from last year.
For this article, however, we will be focusing on our favorite NBA player prop picks for Tuesday, Oct. 29.
Keegan Murray o14.5 Points (-120) Bet365
Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz, 9 p.m. ET
This is an absolutely smash spot for Keegan Murray against this horrific Jazz defense, and it is a perfect matchup for him as well. Three-and-D, spot-up-type of players have feasted on the Jazz so far this season.
It’s early, but this was also the case last year, which is why we are comfortable going with this season’s limited data to prove our point.
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This year, the Jazz are giving up the most catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts in the NBA, along with the second-most corner 3-point attempts. This is why a 3-point prop is also a good look for Murray, who leads the Kings in both catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts and corner 3-point attempts.
Just look at what similar players have done against the Jazz this year:
- Santi Aldama: 27 points on five made 3’s
- Desmond Bane: 24 points on four made 3’s
- Buddy Hield: 27 points on seven made 3’s
- Klay Thompson: 4/11 on 3’s, 18 points
- P.J. Washington: 12 points (despite going 0/4 from deep)
While we understand that going back to the previous season is not always perfect, Murray had 15 points in all three games against the Jazz in ’23-24, scoring 15, 47 and 25 points against Utah.
Keegan Murray over 14.5 points (-120): 1 Unit
De’Aaron Fox o5.5 Assists (-109) Caesars
Sacramento Kings vs. Utah Jazz, 9 p.m. ET
Let’s stick with this Kings-Jazz game and this time ride with a point guard’s assists prop against the Jazz. This has generally been a goldmine this year, just as it was last year.
Last year, the Jazz gave up the most assists to point guards in the NBA, and they were also considered the best matchup for point guard assists props, according to Props.Cash. It’s early, but they have continued to be a good matchup for assists this year.
In Utah’s first game of the year against the Grizzlies, Ja Morant had 10 assists in 28 minutes of playing time, while backup Grizzlies point guard Scotty Pippen Jr. had seven assists in roughly 22 minutes.
In the next game against Golden State, nobody on the Warriors had more than six assists, but they had an absurd 35 assists overall. For context, last year, the Jazz allowed the most assists per game in the league at 29.8. The way the Warriors spread the assist love around was a rare occurence and not something that will happen frequently.
Then, last night, Kyrie Irving had nine assists on an over/under of 5.5, while Luka Doncic had eight assists. Doncic went under his assist prop, but that is still a combined 17 assists from the two high-usage guards, both of whom reached the number that we need Fox to get to tonight.
Fox is having a good year from a play-making perspective, especially in his first two games of the year. In those contests, Fox averaged 10.5 assists per game on 15.5 potential assists, and he also averaged 11.5 adjusted assists in those games.
He admittedly had a slower assist game last night, with just three assists in a 111-98 win over Portland. That makes this a solid bounce-back opportunity in a great matchup against the Jazz.
Guards that drive to the basket generally crush their assist prop against the Jazz, so we feel good about backing Fox tonight.
De’Aaron Fox over 5.5 assists (-109): 1 Unit
Brandon Ingram 20+ Points (+105) FanDuel
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors, 10 p.m. ET
This is a nice bounce-back spot for Brandon Ingram, who cashed this in the first two games of the season, with 33 points against the Bulls and 21 against the Blazers before missing it in his third game of the year, also against the Blazers.
Though he has reached at least 20 points in two of three games, Ingram has not shot particularly well from the field, going 8-for-20 against Portland on October 25 and 7-for-17 against the Blazers on October 27.
The latter performance was also the only game this year in which Ingram has cashed his assists prop, so it makes sense that he had a lower-scoring game in that one.
As for the matchup, he is going up against an extremely banged up Warriors team. They are missing Steph Curry, which honestly hurts this prop because you’d hope the Warriors can still keep up offensively to make sure the Pelicans need to score. In addition, Golden State is missing De’Anthony Melton, and it is most likely going to be without Andrew Wiggins as well.
One other reason to like Ingram is the tough matchup that Zion Williamson has against Draymond Green tonight. Williamson has struggled against Green throughout his career.
Last year, in two games against Green specifically, Williamson shot 1-for-4 and did not get to the free-throw line once. Before that, the last meeting between these two took place back in the 2020-2021 season, when Williamson did not score a single point on Green in two games. Overall, Williamson has only had one good scoring outing against the Warriors in eight career games.
With Pelicans guard C.J. McCollum going off last game, that leaves Ingram as our prediction to have a good game tonight, hopefully cashing out this plus-money prop.
Brandon Ingram 20+ points (+105): 1 Unit
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