Women are dominating early voting in the 2024 election so far, prompting concern among some of former President Donald Trump‘s allies.
Women are outpacing men in casting ballots nationally and in all seven battleground states, according to NBC News’ tracker of early ballot returns. Of the more than 58 million mail-in and early in-person votes that have been cast nationally, 54 percent were cast by women and 44 percent by men.
In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina, there is at least a 10-point gap between men and women in the early vote. The gender gap was widest in Pennsylvania as of 2 a.m. ET on Thursday, with women accounting for about 56 percent of the early vote, and men for about 43 percent.
Pennsylvania, the largest battleground state, is key for both Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, and both have campaigned in the state more than any other as polls show a tight race in the final days of the campaign. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Residents wait in a line around city hall to cast their ballot on the last day of early voting, October 29, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Women are dominating early voting, data shows.
Matthew Hatcher/AFP via Getty Images
While it is not known how women who have cast ballots early have voted, the data is worrying supporters of Trump who fear it may indicate he will not be able to win in November.
“Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple,” Charlie Kirk, the founder of Turning Point, an organization that has become a powerful ally of Trump’s campaign, wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
Mike Cernovich, a right-wing political commentator, wrote that “male turnout in Pennsylvania for Trump has been a disaster.” He added: “Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA [Pennsylvania] and it’s over.”
Harris has made defending abortion rights central to her campaign—an issue that has become an election liability for Republicans—and targeted women of all races and education, including Republican women dissatisfied with the former president.
The early voting data is encouraging Democrats who see women as crucial to propelling Harris to the White House.
“In some states, women are actually exceeding their vote share from 2020, which is at this point shocking to me,” Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of data firm TargetSmart, told Politico.
However, it is not known if the increased turnout among women is only beneficial for Harris since Trump has seen success in his recent calls for Republicans to cast their ballots ahead of Election Day, after previously attacking all forms of early voting.
More registered Republicans than Democrats have cast their mail-in or in-person ballots in the battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia as of early Thursday, though Democrats are facing outpacing Republicans in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
“We are seeing an increase in Republicans of all types, gender—men and women—voting,” Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida who tracks early voting data as part of his United States Election Project, told Politico. “It’s just that women are still ahead and keeping pace.”
