Political analyst Ron Brownstein said Saturday morning on CNN that the Democratic Party is heading into Election Day with “noxious optimism” in regard to Vice President Kamala Harris thanks to early voting figures in swing states.
In the seven most hotly contested battleground states, women have cast 55 percent of the ballots so far, while men have accounted for 45 percent, according to new data from Catalist, a data firm aligned with progressive causes.
NBC News reported on Thursday that early ballot returns showed that of the more than 58 million mail-in and early in-person votes that have been cast nationally, 54 percent were cast by women and 44 percent by men.
Harris, the Democratic nominee, has made defending abortion rights central to her campaign—an issue that has become an election liability for Republicans—and targeted women of all races and education, including Republican women dissatisfied with former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.
Trump’s stance on abortion has been inconsistent, with past statements suggesting that women should face punishment for seeking abortions, while he has also highlighted the judicial appointments that led to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Recently, he has indicated a willingness to veto a national abortion ban, advocating for state-level regulation instead.
During a Wednesday rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Trump said his advisers told him not to call himself a “protector” of women after using the term at a September rally.
“They said, ‘Sir, I just think it’s inappropriate for you to say.’ I pay these guys a lot of money; can you believe it?” he said at the rally. “I said, ‘Well, I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not. I’m going to protect them. I’m going to protect them from migrants coming in. I’m going to protect them from foreign countries that want to hit us with missiles and lots of other things.'”
Harris said on Thursday that such statements reflect Trump’s lack of understanding of women’s rights to make their own decisions regarding their bodies and lives.
“I think it’s offensive to everybody, by the way,” the vice president said before embarking on a day of campaigning in the battleground states of Arizona and Nevada.
At a rally in Phoenix, she further emphasized her point, saying, “He simply does not respect the freedom of women or the intelligence of women to know what’s in their own best interests and make decisions accordingly. But we trust women.”
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally on November 1 in West Allis, Wisconsin. Political analyst Ron Brownstein said Saturday morning on CNN that the Democratic Party is heading into Election Day with “noxious optimism” in regard to Harris thanks to early voting figures in swing states.
Getty Images/AFP
The early voting data is encouraging Democrats who see women as crucial to propelling Harris to the White House.
When presented with the Catalist figures, Brownstein, a CNN senior political analyst and senior editor for The Atlantic, told CNN host Amara Walker, “That number you cite is probably the single reason for the shift in the Democratic mood from pervasive gloom, say a week ago, to what they’re calling noxious optimism on the brink of election—that women are comprising such a high percentage of the early vote.”
However, it is not known if the increased turnout among women is only beneficial for Harris since Trump has seen success in his recent calls for Republicans to cast their ballots ahead of Election Day.
As of Thursday, more registered Republicans than Democrats have cast their mail-in or in-person ballots in the battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia as of early Thursday, though Democrats are facing outpacing Republicans in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Brownstein said Saturday, in typical years, the early-voting figures skewing toward women would only be a “tremor.” However, in an election that is projected to have a historic gender gap with razor-thin margins, especially in swing states, “everything matters,” the political analyst said.
“Donald Trump is going to have to win men by more than Kamala Harris wins women, in all of these states, and do that when demographic change continues to change and sand away at the Republican coalition,” Brownstein said.
Newsweek has reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns by email on Saturday morning.
While it is not known how women who have cast ballots early have voted, the early data is worrying some Trump supporters.
“Early vote has been disproportionately female. If men stay at home, Kamala is president. It’s that simple,” Charlie Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA, an organization that has become a powerful ally of Trump’s campaign, wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
Mike Cernovich, a right-wing political commentator, wrote that “male turnout in Pennsylvania for Trump has been a disaster.” He added: “Unless this changes, Kamala Harris takes PA [Pennsylvania] and it’s over.”
