Iran’s military forces were four days into extensive drills on Wednesday that many believe are essentially preparations for how the country could react to a U.S., Israeli or combined attack on its nuclear facilities.
Brigadier Gen. Mohammad-Nazar Azimi, commander of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Najaf Ashraf West Headquarters, has touted the nationwide drills as including “new weapons and equipment.”
Azimi also said the exercises would test the capabilities of Iran’s Basij paramilitary forces, who are tasked with maintaining domestic security.
The war games are likely aimed not only at demonstrating Iran’s ability to respond to and defend against an attack from outside the country, but also to ensure the Basij are ready to quash any domestic uprising against the country’s Islamic cleric rulers that could be precipitated by such an attack.
Some Iranian analysts who are critical of the government and spoke to CBS News on the condition of anonymity said the drills may be a demonstration of power by Iran prompted by the dramatic changes in the balance of power in the Middle East — with Israel severely disabling Iranian-backed groups in Gaza and Lebanon, and long-time Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad being toppled by rebel forces.
Iranian state media
Dr. Yasser Ershadmanesh, a conservative analyst who lectures at the University of Law and International Relations in Tehran, told CBS News on Wednesday that the “IRGC needed to have this military drill to show them that Iran is ready in all aspects.”
Ershadmanesh said Israel and its Western allies were exerting pressure on Tehran and presented an “imminent threat … so this drill will show Israel and the U.S. that Iran is completely ready, and will send a message to the world and region about Iran’s power and readiness.”
Iran’s leaders are likely concerned that President-elect Donald Trump, once he comes back into office on Jan. 20, will increase that pressure significantly by applying further economic sanctions and possibly by supporting an Israeli military attack on Iran’s nuclear and or missile facilities.
Trump and his close advisers have been considering options to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon — something the president-elect has said he will not allow.
Iranian state media
Iranian officials have long said they do not intend to pursue nuclear weapons, but since Trump pulled the U.S. out of the international nuclear deal with Tehran during his first term in office, Iran has steadily ramped up its nuclear enrichment programs, moving the country closer to the ability to make an atomic bomb.
The Wall Street Journal reported recently that Trump and his team have discussed the possibility of preemptive airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities as part of that planning.
One of key features of the ongoing “Great Prophet 19” military exercise has been a simulated aerial assault on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, with fictional strikes seeing an enemy hit the plant with a bunker-buster bomb – the type of weapon Israel or the U.S. could use if they did target Iran’s underground nuclear work.
Iran’s semi-official SNN news agency said the ongoing exercise began on Jan. 4 and includes air, ground and sea forces and weapons systems, and that it is meant to test Iran’s domestically made air defense systems, including a number of different short and mid-range missiles.
Among the weapons being tested in the drills is the Dezful surface-to-air missile system, which is an upgraded version of the Russian-made Tor M1 system. The system can fire up to two rockets simultaneously from mobile launch vehicles and is designed to shoot down aircraft or ballistic missiles.
IRGC spokesman Brigadier Gen. Ali Mohammad Naeini previously said there also would be an electronic warfare dimension to the exercise.
