Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown holds a five-point lead over Republican challenger Bernie Moreno in the high-stakes battle to hold his Ohio Senate seat, according to the latest poll.
The survey of 600 likely voters, conducted by SoCal Strategies on behalf of Red Eagle Politics, which provides political commentary “from a right-leaning prospective,” put Brown on 50 percent of the vote against 45 percent for his GOP rival. The survey was conducted between August 31 and September 1.
Republicans are hoping to seize the Senate in November after failing to do so during the 2022 midterm elections, when a widely anticipated “red wave” failed to materialize.
Currently there are 50 Senators who are either Democrats or aligned with the party, against 49 for the Republicans. Democrat George Helmy is due to fill the Senate seat left vacant when Senator Bob Menendez resigned after being convicted on 16 corruption charges by a Manhattan court.
The SoCal Strategies poll also found that Republican presidential contender Donald Trump has a nine-point lead over Democratic rival Kamala Harris among likely voters in Ohio, with 52 percent of the vote versus 43 percent.
Brown’s lead comes despite 46 percent of likely voters in Ohio telling the pollster they would prefer a GOP-controlled Senate, against 41 percent for the Democrats, highlighting his personal appeal.
According to election analytics website FiveThirtyEight the latest poll is in line with past surveys conducted since June, which have given Brown a lead of between four and six points.
An ActiVote poll of 400 likely voters which took place between July 20 and August 12 also put Brown ahead by five points, with 53 percent of the vote against 48 percent.
Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno (left) and Senator Sherrod Brown (right). Brown holds a five-point lead over Moreno, according to the latest poll from SoCal Strategies.
ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP/ROBERTO SCHMIDT/GETTY
A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impacts Research survey of 600 likely voters put Brown on 46 percent versus 42 percent for Moreno, giving the Democrat a four-point lead. This poll took place between July 23 and 28.
Brown had a six-point lead according to a Reminton Research Group survey of 611 likely Ohio voters which was conducted from June 29 to July 1, with the poll putting the Democratic incumbent on 50 percent against 44 percent for his Republican challenger.
Newsweek contacted Senator Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno for comment on Wednesday via email and online inquiry form, respectively, outside of regular office hours.
In the presidential race, an analysis of recent polling by FiveThirtyEight, published on September 3, put Harris ahead of Trump by 3.2 points with 47 percent of the vote against 43.9 percent.
However, due to the Electoral College system, Harris could win the popular vote and still lose overall, as Hillary Clinton did against Trump in 2016. On Monday, Trump was the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election overall according to six leading bookmakers.
Speaking at a Labor Day rally in Pittsburgh, Harris said her campaign are “the underdogs in this race,” adding: “It’s gonna be a tight race until the very end, so let’s not pay too much attention to those polls.”
