US Polling ‘Nostradamus’ Says Gaza Ceasefire Could Be Key to Election for Democrats

Historian Allan Lichtman, nicknamed “Nostradamus” for his election forecasts, has suggested that a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could provide an important boost to the Democratic Party‘s chances of reelection come November.

Lichtman rose to prominence for his prediction model, “The Keys to the White House.” He earned his moniker, after the reputed French seer of the Renaissance period, for his track record in forecasting results for the last 10 presidential elections.

“It would be, probably, extremely important for the keys if by some miracle the Biden administration brokered a ceasefire and a hostage release,” the historian said in a livestream posted to YouTube on Tuesday.

“But that seems extremely elusive at the moment,” he added.

Newsweek has contacted Lichtman via email and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris‘ campaign for comment outside of standard working hours.

The 13 keys, as set out by the historian in a 2012 article for Social Education journal, are:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

If six or more of these 13 true/false statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or fewer be false, it is expected to win.

Lichtman is yet to make a formal prediction for the 2024 election, but previously told Newsweek that this was to come sometime after Labor Day.

Per his model, the brokering of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could influence the election outcome, as the tenth and eleventh keys focus on U.S. success or failure in foreign affairs.

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