For the first time in NFL history, we have a game taking place on a Friday night.
This is not just any game, though — it is also the first one in league history being played in South America, with the Packers and Eagles set to open their season in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Packers-Eagles kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET exclusively on NBC‘s streaming service, Peacock.
For this article, we will be diving into the best NFL player props for this Packers vs. Eagles game.
Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (+105) DraftKings
This price at +105 is very good for Barkley to score a touchdown, as the closest book has this at -110, while others list it as short as -130.
To be clear, we’re not suggesting this as a fade of the tush push sans Jason Kelce (and we will talk about Jalen Hurts shortly). Instead, we just expect Barkley to have more success than D’Andre Swift did in 2023. The latter regularly got tackled inside the 5-yard line in his one season as an Eagle.
Swift had the 11th-most carries inside the 5-yard line last, year with 14 total. He only had four touchdowns on those 14 carries. For context, nine of the 10 players above him had five or more touchdowns, and there were eight players who had fewer carries inside the 5, but more touchdowns than Swift.
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The expectation is that Barkley should get plenty of carries inside the 5-yard line this year. Since Jalen Hurts took over as the Eagles starting QB, the Eagles lead the NFL in running back rush attempts from the opponents’ 2-5-yard line, but they are 30th in RB rush attempts from the opponents 1 yard-line, per FantasyLife.
Swift was incredibly unlucky with how frequently he was tackled inside the five, and it is hard to believe that the same thing is going to happen to Barkley. Assuming the seventh-year back is not cooked, he is going to be much better at converting these to TDs than Swift was.
Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (+130) DraftKings
Note: ATTD applies only to rushing/receiving TDs. So Hurts needs to enter the end zone with the ball in his hands for this bet to hit (passing TDs do not count in this market).
Despite being on Barkley ATTD, we are also riding with Hurts to get into the end zone as well. There is definitely the chance that both can score, but the good news is that at these odds, even if only one of them scores, we will still profit thanks to both the Barkley and Hurts ATTD markets being available at plus-odds.
Also, Hurts’ +130 ATTD price at DK is similar to the Barkley play in that it is a great price when compared to every other book. The closest book is at +110 odds, with every other book at +100 or even lower.
Keep in mind that Jalen Hurts scored 15 rushing TDs last year. Overall, he scored at least one touchdown on the ground in 11 of 17 regular-season games in ’23, and that included four games in which he ran for multiple TDs.
Over the last two years, Hurts has run for a touchdown in 23 of his last 35 games, including the playoffs. Unless teams show they can stop it, the guess here is that the Eagles are going to continue to run the tush push in the post-Kelce era.
Hurts has looked good running the ball over the summer, according to reports, so the guess here is that the Eagles are going to continue to use his legs.
Jordan Love 3+ Passing TDs (+300) Bet365
Since this one has higher odds and a less likely win rate, definitely reduce your unit size, but still consider a sprinkle.
Admittedly, last year’s stats are not super relevant for the Eagles because they have a new defensive coordinator and that defense last year was a total joke, so this is more of a sell of Love than a fade of the Eagles D.
Part of the reason this is a smart play is because of how pass-happy the Packers are in general, and specifically how pass-happy they are in the red zone. Love attempted the third-most passes inside the 20 in the NFL last year, and he was tied with two other QBs with the second-most passing touchdowns in the red zone (29).
Closer to the goal line, it still looks good for Love. Last year, he had the fourth-most passing attempts in the league inside the 10-yard line, and the third-most passing touchdowns from inside the 10 (20), just one behind Dak Prescott (21).
These are all red zone numbers, and keep in mind that if Green Bay scores a touchdown from outside the red zone, the most likely scenario is that it would come through the air.
As for the Eagles secondary, while it is much improved on paper, it would not be a surprise if it struggled out of the gate given that three of the five starters are new, including second-year corner Kelee Ringo and rookie first-rounder Quinyon Mitchell.
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