With the first NFL Sunday of 2024 almost upon us, we will be diving into the NFL player prop market for this article, giving out our three favorite anytime touchdown predictions.
As for bets against the spread, check out our article giving out NFL Week 1 picks against the spread for all Week 1 games.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (-105) BetMGM
Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills, 1:00 p.m. ET
Note: ATTD applies only to rushing/receiving TDs, so Allen needs to enter the end zone with the ball in his hands for this bet to hit (passing TDs do not count in this market).
While we generally try to get these anytime TD bets for plus money, for this play specifically, getting Allen to score is still a phenomenal price, even at short minus-odds.
Last year, Allen scored a touchdown on the ground in 14 of 19 games, giving him a 74% hit rate, and to end the season, he was a touchdown machine.
He ran for at least one touchdown in eight of his last 10 games of 2023, and he had multiple touchdowns in four of those games. So, for those of you counting at home, he had more two-plus touchdown games than he did games in which he did not score. He also had 12 total touchdowns in his last 10 games.
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The Bills have a stud running back in James Cook, but he is not a player who the coaching staff likes using around the goal line. Despite being the Bills starting running back all year, Cook only had five carries inside the 5-yard line last year, which was 41st in the NFL.
Cook took just 10 percent of the Bills’ carries from the 5, and keep in mind this was a team that was tied for third in the NFL with 35 rush attempts in this category. Allen, meanwhile, had 14 carries from inside the 10, and he was able to turn those into eight rushing touchdowns
As for Buffalo’s matchup, it is going up against a horrendous Cardinals defense, so the Bills should be able to move the ball. According to DVOA, the Cardinals had the second-worst passing defense in the NFL last year, and according to PFF, they literally had the worst defense in the NFL. So, the Bills should be able to move the ball, and if they get into the red zone, Allen will have plenty of chances to run in a touchdown for us.
Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown (+100) DK
Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m. ET
Walker is a player who feels somewhat forgotten, but we are high on both him and this offense this year.
Now, to get the negative out of the way first, Seattle’s offensive line might possibly be very bad, which is obviously a concern. The Seahawks enter 2024 with PFF’s second-worst OL.
They are going to need their young tackles to play closer to the way they did in 2022 rather than last year, and their interior might be a mess. The good news, however, is that this Broncos defense is not one that is going to be able to take advantage.
The Broncos ended last year with the second-worst rush defense in the NFL, according to DVOA, and even if you take out their 70-point abomination in Week 3 against the Dolphins, they still had the fifth-worst rushing defense from Week 4 on. They also allowed the most rushing yards per attempt from Weeks 4-18.
While Denver admittedly did not give up a ton of rushing touchdowns, that was more happenstance than anything, as this rush defense was horrible. Walker had a decent year last year, with a touchdown in seven of 15 games (nine total), but I think he is set up for a big year this year, and he has a great Week 1 matchup.
Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown (+150) Bet365
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions, 8:20 p.m. ET
This play is admittedly going against what we saw in the playoffs last year in the matchup between these two teams, but we are trusting Kupp to start the year hot.
In last January’s Wild Card matchup, Puka Nacua went bananas with nine receptions for 181 yards and a touchdown, while Cooper Kupp only went for five receptions and 27 yards, with zero touchdowns. Despite that, Kupp anytime touchdown is the play in Week 1.
Even as Nacua had a record-breaking rookie season, Kupp was still the go-to receiver for the Rams in the red zone. Despite only playing in 12 games compared to Nacua’s 17, Kupp still led the Rams in red zone targets. Kupp had 21 to Nacua’s 15.
Now, heading into 2024, Kupp has managed to stay healthy the entire summer (he missed all of training camp in 2023 with a hamstring injury), while Nacua was the one to miss time with a knee scope. While Nacua is likely to play in Week 1, that is still valuable missed time overall.
As for the matchup, this is a Lions defense that ended the year last year being unable to stop anything through the air. On the entire season, Detroit allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL and the sixth-most passing touchdowns, and from Week 10 and on, the Lions allowed the most passing yards and third-most passing touchdowns.
So, the Rams should be able to move the ball through the air against the Lions, and look for Stafford to zero in on Kupp as they get into the red zone.
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