This Sunday Night Football Week 4 matchup between the Bills and Ravens is a massive one. It will likely have major AFC playoff implications down the line, and is also incredibly important in the present.
The 1-2 Ravens are looking to claw their way back to a .500 record after starting out 0-2, while the 3-0 Bills have looked like the best team in the NFL and are looking to keep that momentum going.
For this article, we will be diving into the best Bills vs. Ravens NFL player prop picks. This is a home game for Baltimore, scheduled to kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock.
Dalton Kincaid o36.5 Rec. Yards (-110) Bet365
It has been a slow start for Kincaid, partly because Buffalo’s last two games turned into blowouts, so he did not really need to do anything.
Two weeks ago, Kincaid had multiple targets designed specifically for him on the first drive of the game. Then, he got banged up so he missed some time, and then that contest quickly got out of hand.
For reference, we are referring to the Week 2 TNF game against the Dolphins, which was over by halftime. The same thing happened in the Bills’ Week 3 game against the Jaguars on MNF.
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Against Jacksonville, Kincaid ended up with a fine stat line of 41 yards and a TD on three receptions despite not being needed in the second half of the Bills’ 47-10 victory.
Overall, Kincaid is second on the team in targets (10), and he is second in target percentage as well (13.7%). He is also is tied for second in first-read targets (7), but he leads the Bills in designed target percentage (30 percent).
It also appears to be a juicy matchup against the Ravens, whose pass defense has been a disaster to start the season. They have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL by far, 315.3 per game, with the next-closest team at 270.7.
Baltimore is also allowing the sixth-most yards per route run and the fifth-most yards per target, so it is not just a volume thing. Part of the Ravens’ issue stopping the pass is stopping tight ends specifically.
They have allowed 93.3 receiving yards per game specifically to tight ends, which is the second-most in the NFL. In Week 2, Brock Bowers had nine receptions for 98 yards, and last week, Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson had six receptions for 95 yards.
Look for Kincaid to go off in this game.
Dalton Kincaid o36.5 receiving yards (-110): 1 Unit
Josh Allen Anytime TD (+135) FanDuel
Note: Allen will need to enter the end zone as a runner or receiver for this to cash, as the ATTD market only applies to rushing/receiving TDs.
After rushing for a touchdown in 15 of 18 games, Allen has now gone two straight games without a rushing TD, which makes this matchup the perfect opportunity to buy back in on his Anytime Touchdown prop.
The run that Allen was on in the touchdown department through Week 1 of this season was pretty absurd. In fact, in that 18-game stretch, he ran for two TDs five separate times. So, for those of you counting at home, he had more games with two touchdowns than zero.
The past two games have been blowouts for the Bills, so Allen has not needed to risk injury by using his legs in the red zone.
Two weeks ago, against the Dolphins, Allen only threw six second-half pass attempts as the Bills blew out Miami 31-10 in a game that was 24-10 at halftime.
Then, against the Jaguars in Week 3, the Bills led 34-3 at the half en route to a 47-10 victory, and Allen did not attempt a pass after halftime.
So, that makes it two straight weeks in which Allen has not needed to use his legs much, but an easy Buffalo win is not something that we foresee happening against the Ravens.
For starters, this game does not project to be a blowout like the last two games. The Ravens are slight favorites, but this should be a close game regardless.
The Ravens are also a team you can pass on, as detailed earlier, but they have been stout against the run. Through three games, Baltimore has allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (50), along with the fewest yards per carry (2.83) and the fifth-lowest explosive run percentage.
Part of that is due to how much success opposing offenses have had throwing the ball against the Ravens, but when teams have tried to run against them, they have not had a lot of luck.
So, the guess here is that Allen will be dropping back to pass early and often, and when the Bills get close to the red zone, he will use his legs, which is something that he has done very frequently in his last 20 games.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (+135): 1 Unit
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