Independent Takes Five Point Lead Over Republican in Red State: Poll

Independent candidate Dan Osborn has overtaken Republican incumbent Deb Fischer in Nebraska, a traditionally Republican state, according to new polling.

The survey, conducted by The Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group between September 27 and October 1, shows that Osborn is leading Fischer by 5 points, on 47 percent to 42 percent.

The poll surveyed 400 likely voters and had a margin of error of ± 4.9 percentage points.

It comes after another poll, conducted by SurveyUSA between September 20 and 23, showed Osborn ahead by 1 point in the state, on 45 percent to Fischer’s 44 percent. The poll surveyed 558 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/-4.8 percent.

Polls had previously shown Fischer leading in the state by up to 13 points. Cook Political Report has categorized Nebraska’s Senate race as likely Republican. It was previously categorized as solid Republican.

Nebraska has historically been a Republican stronghold state. In 2020, Republican Ben Sasse took Nebraska’s Senate seat by 40 points, winning every county, while Donald Trump carried the state by 19 points over President Joe Biden, winning 91 out of 93 counties.

However, independent candidate Dan Osborn, a mechanic, military veteran and union leader who led a successful 11-week strike against Kellogg’s in 2021, has been gaining traction in the polls.

“I hate to call it like I’m trying to call a Nebraska football game, but I would say I’m gonna win pretty substantially. People are ready for a change. People are sick of the status quo,” Osborn told ABC News in an interview last week.

The Democratic Party is not running a candidate in the state’s Senate race. Osborn was a registered Democrat until 2016. When the party elected not to run a candidate in the race, Osborn said he would not seek their endorsement and registered as an independent candidate.

However, a spokesperson for Fischer’s campaign previously disputed that Osborn was truly independent.

“He’s funded by billionaire Democrats, supports social security for illegal immigrants, and loves Bernie Sanders,” the spokesperson told Newsweek last month in a statement. “We are confident that as Nebraskans learn more about who Dan Osborn is and what he stands for, they’ll know he’s not right for Nebraska.”

However, despite the Fischer campaign’s claim that Osborn is funded by billionaires, public campaign finance information shows that her campaign has raised nearly four times as much as his in 2024 ($6.2 million vs. $1.6 million).

Osborn’s largest single donation was $13,200 from a locksmith in Omaha, Nebraska. Fischer, meanwhile, has had 14 contributions from corporations and lobbying groups for larger sums than the locksmith gave Osborn, including $76,500 from a pro-Israel lobby group, $39,600 from a real estate lobby group, and $23,939 from Boeing.

Newsweek has contacted the Osborn and Fischer campaigns for comment via email.

Osborn’s candidacy comes as Democrats are fighting to hold on to their narrow majority in the Senate. Republicans need to secure only two seats in November to gain a Senate majority when the new Congress convenes next year. They are generally expected to win one seat in West Virginia, which means Nebraska could be the key to their success.

With the balance of power in the Senate at stake, Osborn has repeatedly faced questions about which party he would caucus with if he makes it to the chamber.

Osborn has insisted that he won’t link himself to either party. “I would consider caucusing with whoever has control, only if my idea fails, but certainly I want to create an independent caucus, a caucus that is going to benefit everyday people,” he told ABC News.

Osborn added that there’s nothing “set in stone” about caucusing with a particular party. If he becomes a swing vote in the Senate, he said, “that’s going to give me a little swagger, right? People will have to work with me, and I won’t have any problem striking deals to get on committees. But we’ll deal with that when the time comes.”