The San Diego Padres are moving on to the National League Division Series after beating the Atlanta Braves in consecutive NL Wild Card games Tuesday and Wednesday.
Game 1 of the NLDS is Saturday at Dodger Stadium.
It’s a rematch of the 2022 NLDS that ultimately went the Padres’ way. San Diego is hoping that the Dodgers’ five-day layoff from their regular season finale Sunday proves detrimental again. In 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks eliminated a rusty Dodgers squad in the NLDS on their way to a surprising pennant.
The Padres are hoping Thursday and Friday’s days off have another effect as well.
Wednesday’s Wild Card-clinching win over the Braves came at a cost. Starting pitcher Joe Musgrove was removed in the fourth inning of the Padres’ win with an elbow injury. While teammates enjoyed a champagne celebration after the game, Musgrove sounded less than confident about his availability for the next round.
“I don’t know what the future looks like for me right now,” Musgrove said, via the San Diego Union-Tribune, “but I know I’m going to give it every chance I have and I’ll do whatever I have to do to get back in here at some point.”
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 14: Yuki Matsui #1 of the San Diego Padres celebrates a 6-3 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers with Tom Cosgrove #59 and Joe Musgrove #44 at Dodger Stadium on April 14, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. Musgrove exited Game 2 of the Padres’ Wild Card series with an elbow injury.
Harry How/Getty Images
According to the baseball analytics website FanGraphs.com, the Dodgers have a 54.3 percent chance of winning the series. The Padres are the underdogs, at 45.7 percent. That’s not exactly a coin flip, but it’s close.
A closer look at the numbers reveals exactly where the uncertainty lies.
FanGraphs is basing its odds for the series on the assumption that Musgrove starts Game 4, giving the Padres a 51.9 percent chance to win the game. The Dodgers are projected to win Games 1, 2 and 5 at home.
If Musgrove can’t pitch in the series, the Game 4 assignment is likely to go to Yu Darvish. Both he and Musgrove dealt with injuries and inefficiency in 2024, but Musgrove earned the start in the Wild Card round based on a strong September.
There’s a lot of history — and expectations — potentially riding on Musgrove’s right elbow. He allowed eight runs in five September starts (a 2.51 ERA). Six of those runs were allowed in a single Sept. 8 game against San Francisco, and he was an easy choice for manager Mike Shildt to start Wednesday’s game.
Darvish was not as effective over the season’s final weeks, though his September numbers (3-0, 3.55 ERA) were far from shabby. Notably, Darvish started Game 2 of the 2022 NLDS at Dodger Stadium. He allowed three runs in five innings in that game, which the Padres won 5-3.
Pitching for the Dodgers, Darvish started Game 7 of the 2017 World Series at home, allowing five runs in 1.2 innings in a season-ending loss to the Houston Astros.
Teams can reset their postseason rosters after each round. Expect the Padres to announce their NLDS roster Saturday morning. Everyone — including the Dodgers — will be watching to see if Musgrove is able to be included on that roster.
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