‘Huge Advantage’ for Harris in Early Voting Data: US Polling ‘Nostradamus’

Historian Allan Lichtman has suggested that the apparent gender gap in swing state early voting could be a “huge advantage” for Vice President Kamala Harris.

With less than a week until Election Day and early voting already well underway, both Harris and Trump have been looking to maximize their support from swing-state voters. Some early data has shown that the number of Republicans voting early this year is surging after Trump encouraged his supporters to vote before Election Day.

But in a livestream posted to his YouTube channel on Tuesday, Lichtman said gender could be more indicative of who is winning in early voting than party registration.

“We know there is an enormous gender gap in every state, with a double-digit gender gap on both sides.

“And so I think the most indicative statistic of how the early vote is going… is gender.”

Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns via email for comment.

Lichtman broke down data from early voting in the all-important swing states from NBC News’ early voting tracker.

It showed that in Michigan 56 percent of early voters were women and 44 percent were men. “That’s huge,” the American University professor said.

In Wisconsin the figure was 51 percent women and 43 percent men, while in Pennsylvania it was 56 to 43 percent.

“So we’re talking about anywhere between an eight- and 13-point gap between men and women,” Lichtman said.

“And, presuming the gender gap holds, that means a huge advantage in these states.”

Arizona was closer but still had a higher turnout among women—48 percent compared with 44 percent men.

In North Carolina the figure was 55 percent women and 45 percent men, which Lichtman said was one of the largest advantages.

The one swing state that did appear gender-balanced was Nevada, with 45 percent each.

“A lot of the misguided pundits saying, ‘Republicans are doing better, they’re surging’—that’s true if you look at the nation numbers, not at the swing state numbers, and it ignores the gender numbers, which I think are far more indicative than the registration numbers,” Lichtman said.

“Gender is going to be the most important indicator of results,” he added.

Speaking to Newsweek, Lichtman said: “The critical statistic to examine is not party registration because we do not know how registrants voted, and many independents are in the mix.

“The critical statistic is gender because there is a considerable gender gap in this election.

“Women are far outpacing men in early voting in swing states,” he added.

Lichtman earned the moniker “Nostradamus”, after the French reputed seer of the Renaissance, for his impressive track record predicting the outcomes of presidential elections since 1984, alhough his methods are not without their critics.

His system hinges on 13 keys, all true or false statements, which evaluate the standing of the incumbent party based on a range of issues including the economy, domestic politics and foreign policy.

Lichtman has officially forecast that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election, based on this prediction model.

The 13 keys, as set out by the historian in a 2012 article for the Social Education journal, are these:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking reelection: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

If six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose the election. Should five or fewer be false, it is expected to win.

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