The Dodgers took a commanding 3-0 lead of the World Series last night, taking down the Yankees 4-2.
L.A.’s Freddie Freeman hit a two-run home run in the first inning, and the Dodgers did not look back from there. The only two runs the Yankees scored were in the bottom of the ninth, when the game was pretty much out of hand.
Though they are down 0-3, the Yankees are still the favorites to win straight up tonight. That makes sense given that have Luis Gil on the mound, but they still have a ton of ground to make up in this series.
First pitch is set for 8:08 p.m. ET, and this article will focus on the best MLB player prop picks for World Series Game 4 between the Dodgers and Yankees.
Juan Soto 2+ Bases (+145) Fanatics
This is a rerun from last night, when we were not able to cash out Soto getting to two or more bases.
He went 0-for-3 at the plate, but he was close to cashing this out thanks to a screaming lineout that left the bat at 102.2 mph exit velocity. It traveled 356 feet, and had an expected batting average of .570, according to Baseball Savant. Unfortunately, though, that quality swing went down in the record books as an out.
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This continued a torrid stretch from Soto at the plate, who has been crushing the baseball. Here are his stats in this World Series:
- .300 batting average
- .438 wOBA
- 1.100 OPS
- .300 ISO Rate
- 30 percent barrel rate
- 60 percent HardHit rate
Generally, the deeper you go into the playoffs, the tougher it is supposed to get for batters, but Soto has gotten better in each series.
As of late Tuesday morning (ET), the Dodgers have not officially announced a starter for the series, but reports indicate it is going to be a bullpen game for the Dodgers.
Their bullpen has generally been good in these playoffs, which is why they are one win away from winning the World Series, but we have seen some implosions from their pitching staff in the past.
Either way, it is hard to bet against Juan Soto with the rate he has been hitting the baseball, so we will gladly go back to him, even after losing last night.
Juan Soto 2+ bases (+145): 0.50 Units
Luis Gil o2.5 Walks Allowed (+145) DraftKings
This is admittedly a deeper cut, but there is some real value at +145.
In the regular season, the Dodgers had the third-highest walk rate in the MLB at 9.6 percent, but they have been even more patient at the plate since the playoffs started.
In the postseason specifically, L.A.’s walk rate has jumped up to 11.7 percent. A big reason the Dodgers are in the World Series is how patient they were at the plate in the NLCS against the Mets.
The Mets beat the Phillies partially by pitching out of the zone and letting them chase, but the Dodgers were having none of that. They had a walk rate of 16.2 percent in that series, and they have adopted a similarly patient approach against the Yankees.
In Game 3 last night, Yankees starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt only pitched 2.2 innings and managed to walk four Dodgers.
Luis Gil, meanwhile, had a regular season walk rate of 12.1 percent and BB/9 of 4.75, both of which led all MLB pitchers who threw for at least 150 innings.
In his lone postseason start, he walked three batters. This is absolutely worth a sprinkle.
Luis Gil over 2.5 walks allowed (+145): 0.50 Units
Teoscar Hernandez 2+ Bases (+160) Fanatics
Hernandez might be the hottest batter in the World Series, but he has not quite gotten the same shine as some of his teammates, who have had bigger plays in bigger moments.
However, Hernandez is seeing the baseball like it’s a beach ball. In his last at-bat, he had a pop-out that was only 77.7 mph off the bat. But here is what his last seven at-bats prior to that looked like:
- 95.5 mph exit velocity
- 108.1 mph, 373-foot lineout
- 108.2 mph, single
- 99.3 mph, lineout
- 102.9 mph, flyout
- 105.6 mph, single
- 107.9 mph, 392-foot home run
That is seven straight at-bats in which Hernandez had a HardHit, with only extra-base hit — a truly confounding stretch. Somehow, he only had three hits in that stretch, but he’s hitting the ball well.
We would admittedly prefer to target Hernandez with a lefty starting pitcher on the mound instead of a righty like Gil, as he is historically better against LHP. That being said, four of those seven at-bats listed above were against righties.
In nine at-bats against RHP in the World Series, Hernandez has a HardHit rate of 55.56 percent, which is still a very good number.
He might go yard tonight, but we’re just looking for two or more bases to cash this one out.
Teoscar Hernandez 2+ bases (+160) Fanatics: 0.50 Units
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