As election day draws closer, Former President Donald Trump has been campaigning in New Mexico and Virginia—states that have not favored Republican presidential candidates in decades.
His visit to Albuquerque on Thursday marks a strategic detour from the more frequently contested battlegrounds, where he hopes to galvanize support ahead of the election.
Trump’s campaign is projecting optimism based on early voting data, believing that he can compete effectively against Democrat Kamala Harris in these states—especially New Mexico—if he secures victories in swing states like Nevada and Arizona.
However, neither New Mexico nor Virginia has been won by a GOP nominee since George W. Bush‘s victory in 2004.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Albuquerque International Sunport, Oct. 31, 2024, Albuquerque, New Mexico. The visit brings Trump and his immigration stance to a border state with the nation’s highest concentration of Latino voters, highlighting the campaign for Hispanic supporters.
Roberto E Rosales/AP
Is New Mexico a Swing State?
Over the past few months, the focus has largely been on traditional battlegrounds such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which have seen a flurry of candidate visits and extensive advertising.
However, Trump maintains a dedicated base of supporters in states that typically lean Democratic.
Recent stops have included not only Albuquerque but also Madison Square Garden in New York and a rally in Coachella, California—both states with solid Democratic leanings.
In Albuquerque, Trump reiterated his belief that he could win New Mexico if the election is fair, echoing claims of past electoral fraud. “If we could bring God down from heaven, he could be the vote counter and we could win this,” he said, framing his presence in New Mexico as beneficial for his image among Hispanic voters.
But experts believe this strategy carries inherent risks. After losing the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton faced criticism for diverting her focus to Arizona late in the campaign instead of concentrating on key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—regions that ultimately determined the outcome.
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Albuquerque International Sunport, Oct. 31, 2024, in Albuquerque, New Mexico. New Mexico voters have twice rebuffed Trump at the polls.
Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP
How Will Trump’s Immigration Policies be Received in New Mexico?
While Arizona is now viewed as a battleground, it wasn’t considered competitive in 2016, when it voted for Trump by a narrow margin.
Bob Shrum, a veteran Democratic strategist said: “I don’t think there’s any strategy. I think he insisted on doing it. It makes no sense.”
Trump’s visit to New Mexico brings his controversial immigration policies to the forefront in a state with a high concentration of Latino voters—about 44 percent of the voting-age population.
Many residents have deep historical ties to the region, with New Mexico having a smaller percentage of foreign-born residents compared to the national average.
The state is currently grappling with a surge in migrant deaths along the U.S.-Mexico border, adding complexity to Trump’s messaging.
The visit has implications for a competitive congressional district in New Mexico, currently held by a Democrat.
Immigration remains a critical issue in this race, as Republican candidates strive to maintain their slim House majority.
Additionally, Democratic Senator Martin Heinrich is seeking a third term against Republican challenger Nella Domenici, the daughter of the late Senator Pete Domenici, who was the last Republican elected to the Senate from New Mexico.
Is Virginia Once Again a Battleground State?
Virginia, once a key battleground state, has shifted significantly toward Democrats over the last decade, particularly in the populous northern suburbs.
Trump lost Virginia to both Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020. This year, Democratic candidates and their allies have outspent Republicans on advertising in the state, further complicating Trump’s efforts.
During his call to a Richmond-area rally, Trump said: “We have a real chance,” as he prepares for his upcoming visit to Salem, Virginia. He is expected to address recent Supreme Court rulings related to voter registration purges, which aim to prevent non-citizens from voting.
As Trump embarks on this unconventional campaign trail, the outcomes in New Mexico and Virginia remain uncertain, but his detours underscore a complex electoral landscape as both candidates make their final pitches to voters ahead of the election.
This article contains additional reporting from The Associated Press
