Donald Trump is seeing an increase in support among white women voters who do not have a college degree, a key demographic expected to play a decisive role in the upcoming election.
According a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, conducted between September 27 and October 1, Trump holds a 1-point lead among non-college educated white women, with 55 percent of the vote to Vice President Kamala Harris‘ 42 percent.
The poll surveyed 1,294 likely voters and had a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Although Trump has historically outperformed his Democratic opponents among white and non-college educated voters, the results are a worrying sign for Harris, for whom white women without a college degree could be a crucial demographic, particularly in suburban areas in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
“That could be a crucial, crucial demographic,” Republican strategist Kevin Madden told PBS, adding that winning their vote is why Harris has focused on reproductive rights to drive turnout.
Suburban women were key to Biden’s victory in the 2020 election. According to exit polls, Biden secured a majority of suburban women’s votes, with AP VoteCast data showing that he won 59 percent to Trump’s 40 percent of a group that makes up around a quarter of the electorate nationwide. This marked a significant change from the 2016 election, when Trump had more support from suburban voters.
However, surveys have shown that Harris is struggling to win over suburban women in this election cycle.
Vice President Kamala Harris in Redford Township, Michigan, on Friday, October 4, 2024. Harris is trailing Donald Trump in the polls among white women without college degrees.
Mark Schiefelbein/AP
According to a survey conducted by the Place America First super PAC, that was first obtained by the Washington Examiner, about 72 percent of suburban women in swing states say the economy is a top priority for them heading into the election. Of those, 70 percent say Harris lacks “viable solutions” for the economy compared to her opponent.
The poll was conducted shortly after the debate between Trump and Harris. Calls were made to 50,000 randomly selected voters in the key swing states of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
In order to win in November, Harris needs 44 electoral votes from the toss-up states, meaning that it is crucial that she wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Polls currently show that she is in the lead in all three states. However, her advantage is narrow, at a margin of just 0.5 to 2 points, according to aggregator FiveThirtyEight, meaning the states are still anybody’s to win.
Harris is focusing strongly on issues that concern women, such as abortion, health, inflation, equal rights, families, schools, security, social issues and the environment, Jane Ruby, president of the League of Women Voters of Chicago told NZZ last month.
She added that these issues appeal to voters in the suburbs, which are growing, with an estimated 52 percent of Americans living in such communities. This means that suburban voters are a vital demographic to capture because they operate somewhat like swing states, fluctuating between supporting Republican and Democratic candidates.
“For pro-choice suburban women, abortion is their number one issue, because of women’s rights, health and safety, and autonomy,” Tresa Undem, who conducts surveys for progressive groups told CNN.
“Here’s what’s ironic. One of Trump’s biggest weaknesses is that so many women want protection and autonomy from him literally as president. And [from] what he represents—the government taking control over their bodies and putting their lives at risk.”
