Former President Donald Trump took a narrow lead on Thursday in one of the key swing states Vice President Kamala Harris needs for victory—Pennsylvania.
The Emerson College Polling/RCPA Pennsylvania survey, which was conducted between October 21-22 among 860 likely voters in the swing state, showed Trump with 49 percent of voter support versus Harris’ 48 percent, while 3 percent remained undecided. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Pennsylvania is one of seven battleground states that will greatly impact who will be the next president, and both candidates have made multiple appearances there in recent weeks, seeking to gain the state’s 19 Electoral College votes.
Harris’ clearest path to victory next month would be to win the three “blue wall” battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, barring any shock results elsewhere. Trump’s most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia while flipping Pennsylvania.
Meanwhile, Thursday’s poll showed most voters made up their mind weeks ago, with just 4 percent having made up their mind in the past week.
“Voters who decided over a month ago favor Trump 51% to 47%, while voters who made up their mind within the past month/week lean toward Harris 52% to 45%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a press release.
Compared to September’s polling from Emerson College/RCPA, there was one small change this month. Then, the candidates were neck-and-neck with 48 percent each.
Like in other swing states, polling remains tight for Harris and Trump. Nate Silver‘s polling tracker showed the pair tied with 48 percent each on Wednesday, while FiveThirtyEight on Thursday showed Trump with a lead of 0.3 percent over Harris (47.9 to 47.6 percent).
Former President Donald Trump is seen at McDonald’s on October 20 in Feasterville-Trevose, Pennsylvania. Vice President Kamala Harris is seen in Philadelphia on October 23. Trump took a narrow lead on Thursday in one of the key swing states Vice President Kamala Harris needs for victory—Pennsylvania.
Win McNamee/CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images
Breaking down the results of the Emerson College/RCPA poll, the gap widened when it came to voters of different ages.
Those under 50 years old favored Harris more (57 percent against 39 percent for Trump), while that was essentially flipped for those over 50. Among undecided voters, Harris looked more likely to win them over, with 51.6 percent leaning toward her, compared to Trump’s 48.4 percent.
“Even after the Democrats have raised and are spending one billion dollars to redefine Kamala Harris, [former] President Trump is winning or tied in every battleground, including Pennsylvania, because his message is resonating with voters across the country,” Republican National Committee (RNC) spokesperson Anna Kelly told Newsweek via email.
Kelly added that voters were favoring Trump because of the Democratic Party‘s embrace of liberal policies.
Newsweek also reached out to the Harris campaign for comment via email Thursday morning.
When Emerson College released its polling at a similar point in the 2020 race, President Joe Biden was ahead of Trump by five points (50 to 45 percent). The race had become tighter compared to previous months and the final result was even closer, with a 1.2 percent victory for Biden.
In 2016, Emerson College showed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton leading Trump with 48 percent of voters compared to his 43 percent, but in that race, Trump went on to secure victory with 48.8 percent of the vote compared to Clinton’s 47.6.
Harris was in Pennsylvania on Wednesday for a town hall with CNN, while Trump was in the state over the weekend working a McDonald’s drive-thru. Trump used the opportunity to attack Harris over claims she never worked at the fast-food chain. The vice president has previously said she worked at a McDonald’s as a college student. The former president is due back in Pennsylvania on Saturday.
