Kamala Harris is now favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, picking up an average of 286 Electoral College votes, against 252 for Donald Trump, according to the latest model published by analytics website 338Canada.
The study, released on October 22, has Harris favorite to win the key swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the latter of which leaned towards Trump in a previous 338 Canada analysis published on October 17. The new model forecast Trump as the most likely victor in the battlegrounds of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
Recent polling suggests the 2024 presidential election remains too close to call, with analysis by election website FiveThirtyEight released on Wednesday giving Harris a 1.8 point lead nationally, with 48.1 percent of the vote against Trump’s 46.3 percent. However due to the Electoral College system Harris could win the popular vote, but still lose overall, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016, and overall FiveThirtyEight has Trump as narrow favorite with a 51 percent chance of victory.
The latest election map published by 338Canada, showing Kamala Harris as favorite to win both overall and in the key swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
338Canada
The latest 338Canada model, which is based on “opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data,” forecasts Harris to pick up between 224 and 338 Electoral College votes, with the average figure of 286 being more than the 270 required for victory. By contrast Trump is given a range of 200 to 314, with 252 as the average result.
According to the study, Harris is favorite to win in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where her odds of victory are 53 percent, 54 percent and 51 percent, respectively.
Notably the model also has Harris as the most likely victor in North Carolina, a state which backed Trump in 2016 and 2020, where it gives the vice president a 51 percent chance of victory. By contrast, the 338Canada model study published on October 17 had Trump as favorite to win in the state.
Trump was favorite in the battleground states of Georgia, Nevada and Arizona, according to the latest study, with victory odds of 56 percent, 51 percent and 58 percent, respectively.
Newsweek contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment on Thursday via email outside of regular office hours.
On Wednesday, Harris appeared at a CNN event hosted by Anderson Cooper, who challenged the Democratic candidate over her support for a bipartisan border bill that included $650 million in funding for a border wall, an idea she previously branded “stupid.”
During the conversation, Harris said she believes Trump is a fascist, echoing remarks by John Kerry, who said that as president the Republican nominee had also praised Adolf Hitler’s generals. Speaking to Newsweek Trump campaign adviser Alex Pfeiffer denied Kerry’s claim, commenting: “This is absolutely false. President Trump never said this.”
In a boost for Trump, the Republican nominee polled ahead of Harris, according to four recent national surveys published by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, Fox News, ActiVote and NBC News.
