The look of this game took a major turn on Friday, when the Eagles sent out their practice report that noted superstar A.J. Brown was limited with a hamstring injury.
He did not practice on Saturday, and he was ultimately ruled out on Sunday. Since Brown was traded over to the Eagles, QB Jalen Hurts has only played in one game without him, and it did not go well.
It was the playoff loss to the Bucs last year, 32-9. Granted, there was a lot more wrong with that Eagles team, but it will be interesting to see how they look tonight. As for this article, we will be giving out our favorite NFL player prop picks for Monday Night Football tonight between the Falcons and Eagles.
The Eagles are hosting, with the game set to kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET
Bijan Robinson 5+ Receptions (-102) FanDuel
This is a play that Robinson cashed last week, and it is something that we like to hit again tonight.
Just looking at the Falcons offense last week, unless something major changes with either Kirk Cousins’s health, or his confidence in his health, it is hard to see a scenario in which he does not check the ball down a bunch this week as well.
In Week 1, Kirk Cousins was the only QB who did not attempt a pass beyond 20 air yards. Atlanta did not even bother trying to do anything downfield, which is why it only scored 10 points.
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In that game, Robinson had five receptions on five targets for 43 receiving yards. The second-year back led the Falcons in catches, and he was second in both targets and receiving yards. Somehow, Ray-Ray McCloud led the Falcons in both targets and receiving yards, but that is nothing that is going to continue week-over-week.
Another point in the favor of this is that Robinson is taking essentially all the snaps. Last week he took 89% of the snaps, and that is also something that should continue, barring injury of course.
The Falcons coaching staff comes from the McVay and Shanahan coaching tree, which is generally a one-back system. The guess here is that the Eagles are going to sell out to make sure he does not beat them in the run game, and that they are going to have the check-downs bottled up as well, so this is a receptions play over a yards play.
Bijan Robinson 5+ Receptions (-102): 1 unit
Dallas Goedert Anytime TD (+240) Caesars
This was a play that we liked before the A.J. Brown news, but luckily the odds have not moved significantly, so we are still able to get a similar price. As for the play itself, it has been an interesting past 12 months for Goedert, who was awesome two seasons ago but really disappointed last year.
Physically, he did not look any different in 2023 than he did the year prior; the biggest difference was how he was used. In 2022, the Eagles very creatively used Goedert and he had a ton of success on screens and picking up yards after the catch, but all of that went away last year.
Last year, he only had four touchdowns, including the playoffs. Granted, he also finished with four receiving TDs the year prior, with the biggest difference being that he had 702 receiving yards in 2022 and 593 last year. In 2022, he averaged 12.8 yards per reception, which is an absurd number for a tight end. However, last year that dropped down to 10 yards per catch.
He had games like Week 2 against the Vikings last year, when he had six receptions for 22 yards (a disgusting 3.66 yards per catch).
The best game of his season last year was against the Rams, when he had eight receptions (the most he’s had in his last 20 games), 117 receiving yards (also the most he’s had in the past 20 games, and the only time he’s gone over 100), and a TD.
Last year, L.A. allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends, which was tied for the second-most in the NFL. The reason these stats are relevant is the Rams defensive coordinator last year was Raheem Morris, who is now the head coach of the Falcons. Yes, the personnel is different, but the Falcons current defensive system is the one that Morris brought over from L.A.
Along with the touchdown, we also like Dallas Goedert 50-plus receiving yards, which is available at odds as tempting as +140 at Bet365.
- Dallas Goedert Anytime TD (+240): 0.50 units
- Dallas Goedert 50+ receiving yards (+140): 0.50 units
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