Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said his country’s proxies stand with Hezbollah following Israel’s claims that it had killed its chief Hassan Nasrallah. However, Tehran is limited in how it can retaliate, a regional expert has told Newsweek.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said on Saturday it had killed in an airstrike Ahmed Muhammad Fahd, the head of a Hamas network in southern Syria. The IDF then added that Nasrallah was “eliminated” in an airstrike in Dahiyeh, south of Beirut, Lebanon, on Friday.
Hezbollah confirmed the death of their charismatic leader, who rarely appeared in public and was a key figure in the Axis of Resistance that projected Iran’s power across the Middle East. Newsweek has contacted the Iranian Foreign Ministry for comment.
After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, sparking the war in Gaza, Nasrallah had committed Hezbollah to persistent rocket attacks on northern Israel, forcing the evacuation of tens of thousands of Israeli civilians.
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the southern Lebanese village of Khiam on September 28, 2024. The strikes follow Israel’s attacks on Beirut the previous day, which killed the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah.
RABIH DAHER/Getty Images
Khamenei did not mention Nasrallah by name in his first statement since his death, saying on Saturday “all the Resistance forces in the region support and stand alongside Hezbollah.”
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Brigadier General Abbas Nilforooshan was also killed in the attacks on Beirut, Iranian media reported. Khamenei has been transferred to a secure location inside Iran, two regional officials told Reuters.
Hamidreza Azizi, research fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) think tank in Berlin, said Iran faces a difficult next move, especially following pledges to avenge the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran, in July.
“The equation that Iran was thinking about showing a decisive response that would prevent further Israeli activities against Iranian interests without entering into a war seems not to be available anymore after what has what has happened to Hezbollah,” Azizi told Newsweek.
Iran had vowed to avenge the Israeli attack on Tehran’s consulate in Damascus in April, but its missile and drone attacks on Israel was not a deterrent, Azizi added.
“After that, the dilemma was for Iran any move beyond that could trigger war,” said Azizi. “That was why they didn’t respond to Haniyeh, and it actually seems to be quite late to establish that sort of deterrence.
“This doesn’t mean that Iran may not do something, but any move at this moment has the risk of an escalation more than before.”
Azizi said one option for Iran would be to enter into a war, but this would trigger a massive Israeli response. Another move could be to wait for international efforts to stop the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, but these show no sign of abating.
Tehran could also try to mobilize what remains of the network of partners and proxies, such as the Houthis in Yemen and militias still stationed in Syria, but there is a “serious lack of command” of this network following the death of Nasrallah, Azizi said.
Tehran has two options now and “this is not even a choice between bad and worse,” Azizi added. “They’re both very bad choices in terms of their strategic consequences.”
Hezbollah’s alliance with Iran transformed the faction descended largely from the Shiite Amal movement into a great security threat to Israel.
An Israeli airstrike hits the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, on September 27, 2024; inset left, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivers a televised speech on April 5, 2024. He was killed during the strikes, Israel’s military has said.
AP/Hussein Malla/ANWAR AMRO/AFP via Getty Images
Under Nasrallah, it obtained an arsenal of long-range missiles, rockets and other weaponry, outstripping the capabilities of the Lebanese army.
When civil war broke out in Syria, Nasrallah sent his forces to fight for President Bashar al-Assad, an Iranian ally, and cemented his status in Iran’s proxy network, which includes Hamas, Yemen’s Houthis and militias in Iraq.
Former Israeli intelligence officer Avi Melamed said Iran had little interest in escalating tensions with Israel and its allies and may allow its weakened deterrence strategy to fade while prioritizing self-preservation.
The repercussions of Friday’s strike were likely to be felt in Syria, given Hezbollah’s role as a key supporter of the regime of al-Assad, Melamed said.
“Assad’s position could become increasingly vulnerable to rebel factions,” he told Newsweek. “This shift may encourage Assad to distance himself from Iranian influence and explore closer ties with other Arab nations seeking to curb Iran’s ambitions.”
